Hyderabad: A short-term predictive model of the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic, taken up for the first time in the State, has projected that Telangana could experience a peak in the number of positive cases in the month of September. The predictive model titled as ‘FICCI, ASCI, FTCCI Study in projections for Covid and recommendations for Treatment Management in Telangana State’, which was presented on Thursday, said Telangana is on right track and with a bit of effort in adding more infrastructure and manpower, should be able to take the peak head-on.
In the study, the researchers from FICCI, ASCI and FTCCI have come-up with a conservative and alternate (worst case) scenarios for Telangana in September, 2020 and have sought to frame recommendations aimed at giving direction to the State government on measures to be taken-up to meet such kind of scenarios.
In this scenario, which takes into consideration the current pace of rise in infections, the study says that by September 30, Telangana will have a total 76,828 active cases while the overall number of positive cases will be 2,84,710 out of which the number of recoveries will be 2,06,478.
According to the conservative projections, by September 30, the mortality rate will be 0.5 percent, the cumulative deaths may rise to 1, 404 and the number of deaths per day, may rise to 18 while at present i.e. up to July 25, the average number of deaths due to Covid-19 was close to 11.
The prediction model in the alternate model (worst case) says that by September 30, the State may witness a total of 2,64,467 active cases while the cumulative number of positive Covid-19 infections will be 9,66,971 while the number of recoveries will be 7,01,270.
According to the predictive models, the daily testing by then will go past the 37,000 mark. The cumulative death figure is predicted to reach 3,235 whereas deaths per day may spike to up to 83 per day, which is a giant leap from 11, which was the average number of deaths due to Covid-19.
Low mortality rate is advantage for TS
Professor and Director, Centre for Health Care Management, ASCI, Dr Subodh Kandamuthan, lead researcher of the Covid-19 projections study points out that good recovery rates and less mortality rate is a great advantage for Telangana and would go a long way in helping the State recover from conservative and alternate Covid-19 scenarios.
“For the past few weeks, Telangana has been providing excellent health reports on Covid-19. The greatest advantage for the State is its recovery rates among Covid-19 positive patients, which is far better than States like Gujarat, New Delhi and Tamlinadu. Another great advantage in Telangana is that not everybody needs hospitalisation or institutional care. Close to 80 per cent of the positive patients are mild and asymptomatic patients who can recover in home isolation,” he said.
Their projections says that the State, with a little bit of effort, can meet the conservative and alternate scenarios easily, which is a good news. General public must realise that they should always consider cumulative number of active cases because that is what determines the actual projections, he said.
Why the predictive models
“We wanted to find what would be the scenario on conservative and alternate scenario in Telangana by September 30. Based on the predictive models, the health authorities can come with actionable recommendations. We also have evidence from various experts who have told or projected that there could be a peak in September, 2020. Entire Telangana should gear up together to meet the peak. There are also many experts saying that the peak will be anywhere from September to November and some Indian States may experience the peaks in November,” Dr Subodh.
“Our idea is not to come-out with an actual numbers and to spread panic. We wanted to look at the requirements in hospitals during worst case and conservative scenarios and what is the infrastructure requirement across different levels of health care including primary, secondary and tertiary levels,” he added.
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