AIADMK eyes comeback as Palaniswami goes all out to break electoral jinx
AIADMK general secretary Edappadi K Palaniswami is leading an aggressive campaign to return the party to power in Tamil Nadu. Banking on alliances and anti-incumbency, the party faces challenges from the ruling DMK, actor Vijay and other emerging political players
Chennai: The April 23 Assembly poll is very crucial for the AIADMK, which is determined to re-establish its rule in Tamil Nadu after being in the opposition for five years.
In a charged political atmosphere, especially with the sudden entry of actor Vijay in the electoral fray and the ruling DMK aggressively pushing for a successive term, 71-year-old AIADMK general secretary Edappadi K Palaniswami launched his public outreach programme Makkalaikappom Tamilagathai Meetpom (Let’s save people, retrieve Tamil Nadu) campaign to lead his party to power and has been going all guns blazing against the DMK, while also rejoining hands with former ally BJP.
Having lost all polls in the state since 2019, he is keen to reverse the trend for the 54-year-old party, even bringing the breakaway AMMK, led by TTV Dhinakaran, into the AIADMK-led NDA.
STRENGTHS:
1.Palaniswami has emerged as the undisputed leader of the party, with the other claimant to the top post, expelled leader O Panneerselvam, now having joined the DMK.
2.Founded by the legendary M G Ramachandran, fondly addressed as MGR, the AIADMK retains its support base across all sections, including fishermen and minorities.
3.The party is strong in organisational structure with its cadres active at the booth level too.
4.The AIADMK has taken the lead with the staggered release of poll promises that include a Rs 10,000 one-time assistance for people. The party’s invocation of Amma (late Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa) legacy may tilt the scales in its favour.
5.The alliance with PMK and AMMK strengthens the vote base, particularly in northern and central Tamil Nadu, and BJP’s presence in the south, particularly in the communally sensitive Kanyakumari district and certain other pockets, could be an asset.
WEAKNESSES:
1.The AIADMK has been experiencing a series of setbacks with Panneerselvam joining the rival DMK combine. This may upset the party’s calculations in Theni district and certain pockets dominated by the Mukkulathor community.
2.The party failed to retain Premalatha Vijayakanth-led DMDK, which has joined the DMK-led alliance.
3.Senior leader K A Sengottaiyan joining the TVK may also be a setback to the party in Erode district, which falls in AIADMK’s traditional Kongu bastion in western TN.
OPPORTUNITIES:
1.The party’s alliance with the BJP, the Vanniyar community-dominated PMK and AMMK makes it a more viable force in targeting the DMK on anti-incumbency, rising crime, women’s safety, revision of power tariff and property tax, and corruption allegations against state ministers.
2.Strong leadership under Palaniswami, who does not mince words in targeting the DMK. His anti-CAA stand may polarise minority votes and give a secular image to the party.
3.Safeguarding state rights over the Cauvery water issue. Palaniswami introduced the Kudimaramathu scheme to restore minor irrigation tanks and lakes in the state.
4.Strong campaign by PM Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah, who invoke the legacy of AIADMK stalwarts MGR and Jayalalithaa and target the DMK over family rule.
THREATS/CHALLENGES:
1.The DMK government’s performance on welfare initiatives and in attracting investments.
2.DMK president and Chief Minister M K Stalin establishing himself as a dominant political personality since 2021, focusing on welfare schemes and development.
3.With DMK retaining its major ally, the Congress, and welcoming former AIADMK leaders including five-time legislator and former CM Panneerselvam, R Vaithialingam, P H Manoj Pandian, and ties with the DMDK, the party-led Secular Progressive Alliance gets an edge. It presents a strong and unified alliance.
4.Actor-politician Vijay’s ability to attract first-time and young voters may also turn out to be disadvantageous to the AIADMK to a certain extent.
5.Former AIADMK leaders Sengottaiyan and J C D Prabhakar joining the TVK add to its strength. Vijay may split the anti-incumbency votes.
6.The aggressive posture of actor-politician Seeman’s Naam Tamilar Katchi (NTK) vis-a-vis Tamil nationalism and former AIADMK leader V K Sasikala may cut into NDA votes in a few pockets.
