AQIS evolves into structured network, expands reach through proxies: UNSC report
AQIS has evolved from a fragmented outfit into a structured regional terrorist network, using online propaganda and affiliated groups to expand its reach, according to a UNSC report. Indian intelligence officials warn that the outfit could seek greater influence across India.
New Delhi: Al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS), a regional affiliate of Al-Qaeda, transitioned from a fragmented entity into a structured regional network, leveraging online propaganda and proxy outfits to expand its reach across India and neighboring countries, according to a recent United Nations Security Council (UNSC) report.
The AQIS was formed in 2014 with the primary objective of establishing a strong base, with its major focus on India. However, the outfit failed to expand its operations as initially intended and has not carried out a major strike since its inception.
The latest report by the UNSC, however, states that AQIS has evolved from a fragmented and weakened outfit into a more structured regional terrorist network.
Indian intelligence officials say the strategy of lying low has worked in AQIS’s favour.
“The terror outfit remained off the radar for several years, while the focus of major agencies was on groups such as the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP), Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed. The ISKP, which is a rival of AQIS, has, however, stepped up its operations. Pakistan’s engagement with the group to counter the Taliban and Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has also breathed new life into the outfit,” the officials said.
AQIS, meanwhile, focused heavily on its online activities. While its ground-level operations failed to take off, its online propaganda continued uninterrupted. The outfit created proxies such as the Base Movement in South India, Ansar Ghazwat-ul-Hind (AGuH) and Ittehad-ul-Mujahideen (IuM).
The activities of these groups also remained low-key, with their focus restricted to specific targets and issues. For instance, the Base Movement targeted politicians, judges and police personnel whom they termed as anti-Islam.
An Intelligence Bureau official said that while the strategy of lying low and staying off the radar worked for the AQIS, tensions in Afghanistan also helped.
Pakistan’s repeated confrontations with the Taliban in Afghanistan benefited AQIS considerably. The focus was completely on the Taliban, TTP and ISKP, and the AQIS used this to its advantage and kept its focus on creating umbrella structures and proxies. It never gave up on its online propaganda and ensured that the name of the outfit was always in the narrative.
Officials say that the AQIS would create more proxies across the country. It would look to have region-specific outfits which could do its job in India.
An example of this is the Base Movement and AGuH.
The AGuH was linked to the car bomb blast near the Red Fort in Delhi in November last year. Investigations show that the Faridabad module that executed this blast was heavily radicalised by the ideology of the AGuH, which in reality is the AQIS.
A similar pattern was found in the case of the Base Movement. Multiple investigations indicated that although the outfit operated under the name Base Movement in South India, its ideology was rooted in AQIS.
Another official said that with the Base Movement and AGuH covering the southern and northern states, the focus would now shift to the eastern and northeastern parts of the country.
The official said the northeastern states would be high on the outfit’s priority list.
In this context, one must look at the developments in Bangladesh. The AQIS is a key player in Bangladesh and has many groups affiliated to it. The Ansarullah Bangla Team (ABT) and Harkat-ul-Jihadi al-Islami Bangladesh (HuJI-B) are affiliates of the AQIS there.
The recent UNSC report states that the AQIS was looking to exploit Bangladesh to set up its operational cells. “There was some concern about AQIS trying to exploit Bangladesh unrest to establish cells there,” the report stated.
The operations in Bangladesh by the AQIS would have a direct bearing on the northeastern states, officials say.
Outfits such as the HuJI-B and ABT have for long trained their guns on these states and West Bengal.
The AQIS, in a bid to expand its operational capabilities in these states, would largely rely on groups such as the HuJI-B and ABT, an official added.
