China’s population falls again as births drop 17% decade after 1-child policy ended

China’s population declined for a fourth straight year in 2025 despite incentives to boost births, including cash subsidies and policy shifts after ending the one-child rule. New data show falling birth rates as high living costs, economic pressures and low fertility continue to challenge authorities

Bangkok: How do you convince a population to have more babies after generations of a policy that limited families to just one? A decade after ending China’s longtime, one-child policy, authorities are pushing a whole range of ideas and policies to try and encourage more births, ranging from cash subsidies to taxing condoms.

The efforts haven’t paid off yet. At least, that is what population figures released Monday show for what is now the world’s second-most populous nation.

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China’s population of 1.4 billion continued to shrink, marking the fourth straight year of decrease, new government statistics show. The total population in 2025 stood at 1.404 billion, which was 3 million less than the previous year.

The statistics illustrate the stark demographic pressures the country faces. The number of new babies born was just 7.92 million in 2025, a decline of 1.62 million, or 17%. The latest birth numbers show the slight tick upwards in 2024 was not a lasting trend. Births declined for seven years in a row through 2023.

Most families cite the costs and pressure of raising a child in a highly competitive society as significant hurdles that now loom larger in the face of an economic downturn that has impacted households struggling to meet their living costs.

Like many other countries in Asia, China has faced a declining fertility rate, or the average number of babies a woman is expected to have in her lifetime. While the government does not regularly publish a fertility rate, last saying it was 1.3 in 2020, experts have estimated it is now around 1. Both figures are far below the 2.1 rate that would maintain the size of China’s population.

After decades of a policy barring people from having more than one baby, the government raised the limit to two children in 2015. Facing demographic pressure, the government further revised the limit to three kids in 2021.

Officials have had limited success with policy changes to incentivize families to have more children. In July, the government announced cash subsidies of 3,600 yuan ($500) per child to families.

Coupling incentives with other attempts to mold behavior, the government also has started taxing condoms. China removed contraceptives, including condoms, from a value-added tax exemption list in 2025, meaning condoms are now being hit with a 13% tax that kicked into effect Jan. 1.

To further promote child-rearing, kindergartens and daycares have been added to the tax-exemption list along with matchmaking services.

China was long the world’s most populous nation until 2023, when it was surpassed by regional neighbour and sometime rival India.