Cong’s Shashi Tharoor most preferred CM candidate in Kerala: Pre-election survey

A VoteVibe pre-poll survey shows strong anti-incumbency in Kerala, with Shashi Tharoor emerging as the top CM choice. Both LDF and UDF face leadership gaps, while nearly half the voters seek new MLAs, signalling major political shifts before 2026 elections

Thiruvananthapuram: In a pre-poll survey conducted by the Mumbai-based VoteVibe, Thiruvananthapuram Congress Lok Sabha member Shashi Tharoor is the most preferred candidate for the Chief Minister’s post in the State and the anti-incumbency sentiment is high.

Assembly polls will be held in Kerala in April/May 2026 and the survey was conducted to gauge the mood of the people in the state ahead of the crucial elections.

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The survey has found that both major political fronts (the ruling CPI(M)-led Left and the Congress-led UDF) face significant leadership challenges that could impact their electoral prospects.

However, within the UDF, the charismatic Shashi Tharoor emerges as the preferred choice of voters with 28.3 per cent support. But the concerning factor is that 27.1 per cent of voters remain uncertain about the UDF’s leadership in the State.

Significantly, the leadership crisis is even more pronounced within the ruling LDF and former Health Minister K K Shailaja tops the preference list with 24.2 per cent support, while current Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan receives only 17.5 per cent support.

Most alarming for the LDF is the massive 41.5 per cent uncertainty among voters about their preferred leader. The most significant finding is that there is an overwhelming anti-incumbency wave against CM Vijayan’s administration that commenced in 2016.

Nearly half of the surveyed population (47.9 per cent) demonstrates a high anti-incumbency sentiment. It intensifies with age, rising from 37 per cent among younger voters (18-24 years) to 45 per cent among those aged 55 and above. Interestingly, women voters expressed a slightly higher anti-incumbency sentiment (43 per cent) compared to men (39 per cent).

Another significant finding is that 62 per cent of voters want to replace their current Member of Legislative Assembly (MLA), with preferences split between wanting a different candidate from the same party (28 per cent) and switching to a different party altogether (34 per cent).

This represents a significant rejection of the political status quo, with only 23 per cent of voters expressing satisfaction with their current representation.

The survey also reveals a significant trust deficit regarding the CM Vijayan-led government. When it comes to development and governance, the present UDF Opposition enjoys a substantial lead with 38.9 per cent of voter trust, while the LDF trails at 27.8 per cent.

The BJP-led NDA, too, has managed 23.1 per cent trust among voters. VoteVibe is at the forefront of political research surveys on West Bengal, Assam and BMC Elections.