Did India actually overtake China to become the most populous country?

Chinese news outlet I-Media has claimed that India has surpassed China to become the most populous country, with a population of 1,415,653,821 on March 4, 2022. There’s no official announcement from either China or India, with the I-Media report saying the source of Indian population (Live) was shared by netizens. Still, the news has been […]

Chinese news outlet I-Media has claimed that India has surpassed China to become the most populous country, with a population of 1,415,653,821 on March 4, 2022.

There’s no official announcement from either China or India, with the I-Media report saying the source of Indian population (Live) was shared by netizens. Still, the news has been doing rounds on social media and many believed it to be true while others questioned the source.

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Congrats to #India for overtaking China and becoming the country with the world largest population at 11:58am March 4, 2022. India's population reached 1.415bn on Fri, while China's was 1.412bn. According to relevant statistics, China's population only rose by 480,000 last year. pic.twitter.com/EgcauHtBed

— Business Observer (@BizObservation) March 5, 2022

Is this info credible?! https://t.co/JbXzyycGlR

— Hai (Tucker) Wang @wanghaitucker.bsky.social (@wanghaitucker) March 6, 2022

Huang Yinghong, a professor at the OP Jindal Global University, responded to these viral claims.”It’s internet disinformation that India has overtaken China in population size,” he said to Global Times.

Huang said that comparing the two populations is only meaningful if they’re calculated using the same statistical method, not to mention that the number quoted by self-media doesn’t come from an authoritative official Indian source.

India conducts its official census every 10 years. The last one (15th Indian Census) was conducted in 2011. Due to the pandemic, the 16th Indian Census, which was to be conducted in 2021, was delayed.

The latest government data shows that China’s population grew to 1.4126 billion by the end of 2021. According to Worldometer, a trusted American website on global statistics, India’s current population as of March 9, 2022 is 1.403 billion.

According to UN World Population Prospects, 2019, India may overtake China as the most populous country by 2027.