Fuel import bill could drop by Rs 1 lakh crore if India hits 20% EV target by 2030, says SBI Research

An SBI Research report states that hitting a 20% EV adoption rate by 2030 could slash India’s fuel import bill by ₹1 lakh crore. Driven by West Asia geopolitical tensions, EV registrations are projected to cross 25 lakh in 2026

New Delhi: The West Asia crisis is transforming Indians’ travel preferences with a hastened shift to electric vehicles (EV) and EV penetration could save Rs 1 lakh crore of import bill with a 20 per cent adoption rate by 2030 from the current 10 per cent, an SBI Research report said on Thursday.

With the onset of the US-Iran war on February 28, the registration of EVs have jumped significantly in India. From average 1.3 lakh registration in 2025, the March-June period exhibited average 2.3 lakh registrations — a whopping 1 lakh more compared to 2025 average.

---

“At the current rate, we believe, total EV registrations may cross 25 lakh mark in 2026,” said the report.

The penetration of pure EV is continuously rising in overall registration. From merely less than 2 per cent share in 2024, the registration share of pure EV has reached more than 8 per cent share in 2026 to date. In some states, the penetration of pure EV has crossed more than 10 per cent share

India has 29,151 charging stations. Two states (Karnataka and Maharashtra) accounted for 35 per cent of overall charging stations, said the report.

As per new EV policy, the Delhi government plans to install 32,000 charging points infrastructure within the next four years.

“The success of EV will largely depend upon the availability of charging stations,” said the report.

From the current level of 2.86 crore vehicle registered in India (2025), “our projections indicate that by 2030, 4 crore vehicles are going to register. We also estimate that out of these 4 crore vehicles, 20 per cent are EVs (80 lakh from the 2025 level of 15.7 lakh),” the report projected.

“Our estimate indicate that during the four-year period of 2027-2030, 35 lakh more EVs are expected to replace the petrol vehicles (as compared to current BAU scenario),” it added.

In this regard, Delhi’s new EV policy is commendable.

A purchase incentive will be provided to two-wheeler vehicles in the first three years (cumulative: Rs 60,000). For three wheelers, the incentives are Rs 1,20,000 cumulatively. N1 commercial trucks will be provided with a subsidy of Rs 1 lakh in the first year. Delhi also offers 100 per cent waiver on road tax and one-time registration fees for eligible EVs.