Gold posts first weekly gain since May as Fed rate hike expectations ease

Gold recorded its first weekly gain since May, rising over 3 per cent as weaker US jobs data and lower energy prices eased expectations of further Federal Reserve rate hikes. Analysts expect bullion prices to remain supported by global economic and monetary policy developments.

Mumbai: Gold recorded its first weekly gain since May as trader expectations for further US Federal Reserve rate hikes moderated, pushing bullion prices around 3.1 per cent for the week.

Soft US job numbers and lower energy prices led to investors reducing the expectations of monetary policy tightening.

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However, on Friday, MCX gold August futures eased 0.01 per cent while MCX silver July futures inched up 0.04 per cent. Currently, gold futures stand at Rs 1,47,365, while silver futures at Rs 2,37,499 per kg.

The price of 10 grams of 24-carat gold was at Rs 1,46,344 on Friday, up from Rs 1,41,911 seen on Monday market opening, according to data published by the India Bullion and Jewellers Association (IBJA).

“Gold extended its recovery for the fourth consecutive session and touched a 10-day high on Friday. The rebound comes after more than a month of sustained selling following the May 13 import duty hike, with improving sentiment supported by a softer US dollar,” an analyst said.

The analyst said that the recent pullback in the Dollar Index has encouraged fresh buying in bullion, and forecasted that the bullion is expected to trade in the Rs 1,45,000–1,49,000 range, with global cues continuing to drive sentiment.

Market participants said softer US labour data and easing energy costs reduced the probability of further Fed tightening. US hiring slowed sharply in June and traders trimmed the probability of a quarter‑point rate increase at the Fed’s next meeting to below 20 per cent, down from roughly one‑third earlier in the week.

Lower energy costs and softer job growth have led analysts to forecast a gradual easing of inflationary pressures in coming months.

Oil prices have witnessed their sharpest quarterly correction since 2020 as shipments from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates near pre-war levels.

US President Donald Trump and allies have renewed efforts to clear the way for more of the president’s own picks at the Federal Reserve after the Supreme Court blocked an attempt to remove Governor Lisa Cook.

Similar efforts last year, challenging Fed’s independence, helped fuel gold’s rally as investors sought protection against potential policy shifts.