Gold prices rise 0.9 pc amid geopolitical uncertainty and crude oil swings

Gold prices rose during the week amid geopolitical uncertainty and fluctuations in crude oil prices. Analysts said US-Iran negotiations, bond yields, rupee volatility and global market developments will continue to influence bullion prices, while India’s gold demand may decline following the recent import duty hike

New Delhi: Gold prices rose 0.19 per cent during the week over persistent geopolitical uncertainty and sharp movements in crude prices.

On Friday, MCX gold June futures dipped 0.06 per cent while MCX silver May futures lost 0.09 per cent.

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Currently, gold futures stood at Rs 1,58,588, while silver futures stood at Rs 2,71,600 per kg on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX).

The price of 10 grams of 24-carat gold was at Rs 1,58,117 on Friday, up from Rs 1,57,821 seen on Monday market opening, according to data published by the India Bullion and Jewellers Association (IBJA).

Towards the weekend, gold prices traded slightly weak as COMEX gold stabilised near $4535, with strong rupee appreciation adding pressure on domestic bullion prices, an analyst said.

Media reports about progress in US-Iran negotiations eased precious metals buying, though unresolved tensions around the Strait of Hormuz provided near-term support.

Positive signals around ongoing US–Iran proposal discussions are helping COMEX gold hold support near the $4500 zone, though uncertainty around the final outcome continues to keep volatility elevated, he added.

India’s gold demand is expected to dip 10 per cent YoY or by 50-60 tonnes in CY 26, following the import duty hike, according to a report from World Gold Council.

The gold import duty was raised sharply from 6 per cent to 15 per cent, marking the single-largest increase on record, fully reversing the duty cut of July 2024.

Going ahead, gold movement will continue to depend on US–Iran developments, dollar index movement, and rupee volatility.

Higher bond yields represent headwinds for gold and silver in the near term. The yield on 30-year U.S. Treasuries is holding above 5 per cent, and the yield on 10-year notes is ending the week above 4.5 per cent.

Rising bond yields could prompt the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by CY26 end, raising the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold and silver.