India’s national highway toll collections to grow 10-12pc in 2027-28: ICRA
India's national highway toll collections are expected to grow 10-12 per cent in 2027-28, driven by higher toll revisions and steady traffic growth, ICRA said. Collections are likely to moderate in 2026-27 amid slower traffic growth and lower toll rate revisions
New Delhi: Toll collections on national highways in India are expected to grow 10-12 per cent in 2027-28 because of higher toll rate revisions and stable traffic growth of 4-5 per cent, a report said on Monday.
According to a report by ICRA, the forecast follows an estimated moderation in toll collection growth to 7-9 per cent in 2026-27 from 10 per cent in the previous year amid slower traffic growth and lower toll rate revisions.
It expects national highway traffic will grow 4.5-5.5 per cent in 2026-27, compared with 6 per cent in 2025-26.
While toll rate growth is estimated at 3.4-4 per cent during the year, partly affected by export-related traffic challenges.
“Traffic growth on national highways largely moves in line with the gross value added (GVA) of construction, mining and manufacturing (CMM),” ICRA Co-Group Head, Corporate Ratings Suprio Banerjee said.
CMM GVA grew 8.1 per cent in 2025-26, supporting 6 per cent traffic growth on national highways and a 10 per cent increase in toll collections, he said.
For 2027-28, the report projected higher toll revisions supported by a favourable movement in Wholesale Price Index inflation amid the West Asian crisis. It also estimates WPI growth at 8-8.5 per cent in December 2026 and 4.5-5.5 per cent in March 2027.
It also noted that road execution by the Ministry of Road Transport and Highways is expected to remain range-bound at 9,000-9,500 km in 2026-27 against 9,380 km in 2025-26 due to a sustained slowdown in project awards.
In addition, road awards are expected to improve to 8,000-8,500 km in 2026-27 from around 7,000 km in 2025-26.
“EPC is likely to remain the preferred awarding route, while the government is gradually increasing its focus on BOT (Toll) projects to revive private sector participation,” according to the report.
The revised BOT model concession agreement is expected to reduce downside risks for concessionaires and lenders through revenue support during traffic shortfalls and provisions for project termination, it said.
