Pakistan under pressure at home, India on alert for LoC provocation

Indian intelligence agencies have warned of a possible Pakistani provocation along the Line of Control amid growing unrest in PoK and Balochistan. Officials suspect Islamabad could seek to divert domestic pressure through military or terror activity, while India remains on heightened security alert

New Delhi: Indian intelligence agencies have warned of a possible major provocation by Pakistan aimed at diverting attention from the mounting internal challenges confronting Islamabad. With protests in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) continuing and unrest in Balochistan intensifying, Islamabad is reportedly weighing a major operation against India as a diversionary tactic to shift focus away from its domestic troubles.

An Intelligence Bureau official said India must remain on high alert as Pakistan could be planning a major provocation. “The level of desperation is so high that neither Islamabad nor India should rule out the possibility of a provocation along the Line of Control (LoC),” the IB official said.

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Pakistan could attempt a misadventure along the Line of Control (LoC) while simultaneously stepping up its operations in Jammu and Kashmir. The two recent back-to-back attacks in the region are being viewed as a sign that Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) is seeking to revive terror activities in the Valley.

Recently, Pakistan had deployed around 250 Chinese-made SH-15 155mm truck-mounted self-propelled howitzers across several sectors facing the Indian border. They included the locations near Sialkot, Gujranwala and Jalalpur Jatan. The mobile truck-mounted configuration enables rapid shoot-and-scoot operations with a range of around 30-40 km.

India has been closely watching these developments, and the Ministry of External Affairs stated that security agencies remained fully prepared to safeguard national security and counter any potential misadventure.

An official said Pakistan is in urgent need of a diversion as growing questions are being raised within the country over alleged atrocities against people in PoK and Balochistan. The mounting unrest in both regions has added to the pressure on Islamabad, prompting concerns that it could seek to shift public attention through external tensions.

“Moreover, a quick diversion is also needed before the international community starts raising their voices on these issues,” the official also said. Another official said Islamabad may also be seeking a diversionary move to provide a face-saving opportunity for Pakistan’s army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, amid growing internal pressures.

“His role in ordering the atrocities and telling his forces and the government to not give into the demands of these people has come under question. As of now, Munir’s strategy in both regions has failed. Many within the establishment have started questioning his strategy where these regions are concerned,” the official said.

Munir is also under immense pressure over the Imran Khan issue. To top all of that, there was Operation Sindoor in which the Indian armed forces exposed the Pakistani establishment badly, the official added.

Further, the ISI is also trying to activate its existing modules in India. The existing sleeper cells in India are reportedly being called on to execute attacks in various parts of the country. In recent weeks, the agencies have busted multiple modules that were linked to the Jaish-e-Mohammed.

The Pakistani spy agency has also asked its propaganda wing to drum up fake narratives against the Indian state. All these are attention-diverting tactics, an official explained. Pakistan has faced recurring unrest in PoK and Balochistan in the past. However, the situation this time has escalated significantly, with Islamabad struggling to contain the unrest and no immediate solution appearing to be in sight.

The officials say that this explains the desperation and why a diversion is the need of the hour. India must stay on guard as there is a likely provocation being planned along the LoC. Further, the propaganda campaigns and attempted terror strikes within the country are something that the security agencies should not take lightly, the official said.