Personal loan growth boosted credit outflow in April: HDFC Securities

Accordingly, the personal loan segment witnessed further improvement in growth at 12.6 per cent YoY, after hitting a 10-year low of 9.1 per cent YoY in January.

New Delhi: Growth in personal loans segment boosted credit outflow in April, said HDFC Securities.

Accordingly, the personal loan segment witnessed further improvement in growth at 12.6 per cent YoY, after hitting a 10-year low of 9.1 per cent YoY in January.

“This was led by growth in home loans and other personal loans. Growth in credit card receivables improved to 17.1 per cent YoY,” HDFC Securities said in a report.

“Vehicle loan growth reached a 32-month high of 11.7 per cent YoY. We opine that the personal loan segment is likely to continue exhibiting high elasticity to bounce back from the ‘second wave’ disruption.”

Besides, growth in agricultural credit continued to accelerate, clocking in at 11.3 per cent YoY, boosted by back-to-back surplus monsoon seasons.

As per the report, industrial credit growth was muted post the run-up in March as large industrial credit, constituting 82 per cent of industrial credit, de-grew 1.9 per cent YoY given the absence of a strong Capex cycle.

“Growth in credit to medium industries continued to surge, reaching an all-time high of 43.8 per cent YoY, aided by disbursals under the ECLGS.”

“However, credit to micro and small industries was benign at 3.8 per cent YoY. Within industrial credit, credit for roads clocked healthy growth at 26.2 per cent YoY.”

According to the report, segments such as metals, engineering, chemicals, telecom and construction witnessed persistent YoY de-growth.

In addition, the report cited that service sector credit growth continued to decelerate, clocking 1.2 per cent YoY in April 2021.

“Within this segment, growth in credit to NBFCs decreased to 3.4 per cent YoY while growth in credit for ‘other services’ de-grew 11.1 per cent YoY.”

However, overall trade credit growth grew 10.5 per cent YoY Growth in trade credit (wholesale and retail), amongst the very few segments unaffected by the pandemic, improved to 21.9 per cent YoY.

In addition, the report said: “We continue to believe that while credit growth will bounce back in the near-term from the short-term ‘second wave’ disruption, a sustained recovery in loan growth appears elusive until the Capex cycle revives.”