Risk of military interference as Pakistan polls likely to be contentious

Noting that the polls are likely to be contentious, the EIU said there is "a risk of military interference in Pakistan"

Islamabad: A flagging economy, runaway inflation, and mounting unemployment could all weigh into the upcoming elections in Pakistan, leading to shocks for the incumbent government and inviting the expansion of the brewing economic crisis into a broader social and political one, particularly one attracting military interference, media reports said.

This has been forecast in a report prepared by the Economic Intelligence Unit (EIU), which was released on Tuesday, Samaa TV reported.

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With cost-of-living concerns weighing on the support of ruling parties, the EIU’s baseline forecast was for opposition victories in the legislative polls scheduled to be held in Pakistan, the report said.

Noting that the polls are likely to be contentious, the EIU said there is “a risk of military interference in Pakistan”.

The EIU noted that Pakistan will most likely go to the polls in October as scheduled and did not expect any deviation from the constitutionally determined date range.

Apart from the economy, the EIU noted that when Pakistan does go to the polls, it will come at a time of intense economic and political uncertainty creating a powder keg on which the change would be based.

“Looming loan repayments and a lack of foreign-exchange reserves mean the country is teetering on the edge of sovereign debt default. Averting this will require painful economic measures, including severe import repression, that could force an early election,” the report forecast, Samaa TV reported.

“The grim economic situation means that our baseline forecast is for Imran Khan to return to power,” the report noted. However, it added that Imran’s prospective return raises the risk of either direct or indirect intervention by Pakistan’s powerful military, which is concerned about how he has pivoted since leaving office to challenge its influence in the country, Samaa TV reported.

Such a highly-polarised scenario could spell further trouble and instability.

“An outright military coup would lead to street clashes and violence, given vociferous grass-roots support for Imran, deepening Pakistan’s economic crisis,” the report noted.