Rupee falls 14 paise to 96.44 against US dollar on oil surge

The rupee weakened 14 paise to close at 96.44 against the US dollar on Monday, pressured by rising crude oil prices and global risk aversion amid US-Iran tensions. RBI intervention expectations and stronger forex reserves helped limit further depreciation

Mumbai: The rupee fell 14 paise to 96.44 (provisional) against the US dollar on Monday, on risk aversion in global markets and a surge in crude oil prices.

Forex traders said escalating US-Iran conflict and rising US Treasury yields weighed on the rupee. At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 96.53 against the US dollar and traded in the range of 96.35 to 96.53 during the day. The domestic unit finally settled for the day at 96.44 (provisional), down 14 per cent from its previous close.

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On Friday, the rupee gained 12 paise to settle at 96.30 against the US dollar. “We expect the rupee to trade with a negative bias on escalating conflict between the US and Iran over the weekend and elevated crude oil prices.

“However, diplomatic talks between the two nations may prevent a sharp fall in the Rupee. Any intervention by the RBI may also support the rupee at lower levels,” Anuj Choudhary, Research Analyst, Mirae Asset ShareKhan. USDINR spot price is expected to trade in a range of 96.10 to 96.70, Choudhary added.

According to Dilip Parmar — Senior Research Analyst, HDFC Securities, the recent spike in Brent crude, driven by geopolitical tensions, has pressured emerging market currencies like the Indian rupee.

However, aggressive and anticipated interventions by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) have effectively capped the currency’s downside, Parmar added. From a technical standpoint, the spot USD-INR pair encounters resistance at 96.50, while key support remains around 95.80, Parmar added.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading higher by 0.05 per cent at 100.81. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was trading 0.01 per cent higher at USD 88.11 per barrel in futures trade.

Analysts said crude oil prices surged following a fresh round of airstrikes by the US early Monday targeting Iran after announcing the death of another American service member, and Iran fired missiles towards Jordan that risked widening the conflict into neighbouring Israel.

Meanwhile, Bahrain sounded its missile alert sirens Monday morning, warning of an Iranian retaliatory attack after US airstrikes targeted the Islamic Republic. On the domestic equity market front, Sensex declined 442.93 points to settle at 77,708.52, while Nifty was down 95.80 points to 24,238.50.

Foreign Institutional Investors offloaded equities worth Rs 376.41 crore on a net basis on Friday, according to exchange data. According to the Reserve Bank data released on Friday, India’s forex reserves jumped USD 964 million to USD 675.157 billion in the week ended July 10. In the previous reporting week, the overall kitty had jumped by USD 7.26 billion to USD 674.193 billion.