US Sanctions Act puts India at risk of tariffs of up to 100 pc: GTRI

A US House-passed bill could allow President Donald Trump to impose tariffs of up to 100 per cent on India over Russian oil purchases, GTRI said. It warned such measures could threaten Indian exports, energy security and trade relations with Washington 

New Delhi: A bill passed by the US House of Representatives authorising President Donald Trump to impose sanctions on Russia and steep tariffs on countries buying Russian oil and gas, including India, could expose New Delhi to tariffs of up to 100 per cent, think tank GTRI said on Thursday.

However, the actual impact of new tariffs on Indian exports can be assessed only after the US announces the tariff rates, product coverage and implementation timetable, it said.

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The Lindsey O Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026, passed by the US Senate last month, was approved by the House in a 262-159 vote on Wednesday, and will now go to Trump to be signed into law.

The law authorises Trump to impose stiff tariffs on China, India and other countries to cut their dependence on Russian oil and gas.

The Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) said that the Act also allows the US president to impose additional tariffs of up to 100 per cent on goods from the five largest buyers of Russian crude oil and natural gas.

India and China, both major buyers of Russian crude, are likely targets, it said, adding that the Act puts India at risk of tariffs of up to 100 per cent.

“The new US Act turns sanctions into a trade weapon against India. Washington will now threaten tariffs of up to 100 per cent and then offer a lower rate if New Delhi cuts Russian oil purchases and accepts concessions under a deeply unequal bilateral trade agreement,” GTRI Founder Ajay Srivastava said.

He cautioned that India should not trade away its energy security for temporary tariff relief.

“Neither signing a trade agreement nor stopping Russian oil purchases can protect it from future US action under Section 301, sectoral measures or other trade laws,” he said.

He added that Washington has imposed new tariffs even after signing trade agreements with major partners such as the EU, Japan and South Korea, using Section 301 investigations, sectoral measures and other trade laws.

“India should not allow US tariff threats to determine its energy policy. Discounted Russian crude has lowered India’s import bill, strengthened energy security and helped contain inflation,” Srivastava said, adding that India should continue buying Russian oil as long as it remains commercially competitive and negotiate firmly with Washington without granting unilateral trade concessions.

INDIA’S OIL DEPENDNECE:

The GTRI said that the threat is serious because India imports more than 88 per cent of its crude-oil requirements.

In July 2026, Russia supplied India with crude worth USD 7.27 billion — 51.1 per cent of its total crude imports of USD 14.21 billion.

The UAE accounted for 10.8 per cent of India’s July imports, Saudi Arabia 9.6 per cent, Venezuela 6.3 per cent, Brazil 5.5 per cent, Oman 5.3 per cent and the US 2.9 per cent.

“Russia alone supplied more crude than these six countries combined.

India’s sources of oil have changed sharply. Until 2022, Gulf countries supplied more than 55 per cent of India’s crude, while Russia’s share was below 15 per cent,” Srivastava said.

US-led disruptions to Gulf oil supplies have since reduced the Gulf countries’ share to below 30 per cent, pushing India to buy much larger quantities from Russia, he said.

Further, he said that China buys more Russian crude than India, but Washington will put greater pressure on New Delhi as it may fear retaliation by China.

“The US has discriminated against India before. In July 2025, the US imposed an additional 25 per cent Russia-related tariff on Indian goods while sparing China. The tariff on India was withdrawn only in February 2026,” he added.

India’s exports to the US increased by 21.83 per cent year-on-year to USD 8.4 billion and imports jumped 65.78 per cent to USD 5.97 billion in August.

During April-August 2026-27, the country’s merchandise exports to the US grew 6.17 per cent to USD 42.8 billion, while imports increased 29.6 per cent to USD 28 billion. The US was the largest trading partner of India in 2025-26.

The US is a key export destination for India’s labour-intensive sectors like textiles, gems and jewellery, leather and footwear, handicrafts, besides smartphones, chemical, electrical machinery, and pharmaceuticals.