West Bengal polls heat up as Trinamool and BJP gear up for tight contest
West Bengal heads into a closely fought Assembly election amid intense campaigning and voter roll revisions. The contest between Trinamool Congress and BJP is expected to tighten, with SIR changes and voter dynamics likely to influence outcomes across several key constituencies
New Delhi/Kolkata: As the campaign trail turns hotter under a blazing sun, West Bengal prepares for a two-phase Assembly election on April 23 and 29, where political rivals battle for territorial victory in feet – if not inches – rather than miles, setting the stage for an even more volatile contest than the last one.
Several issues dominate this year’s election, where on-ground reports and opinion polls predict an intense contest building up mainly between the Trinamool Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
Other political parties are set to collect their mandates largely at the expense of the ruling dispensation.
The Election Commission’s Special Intensive Revision (SIR) has further added to the uncertainty, especially with the removal of around 91 lakh names. It is perhaps the first time that the electors’ roll remains open for the addition of names till close to polling day.
And the first incident where ‘tribunals’ headed by judicial officers are adjudicating claims for the addition of names.
The reduction in the electorate from over 7.66 crore to about 6.75 crore post-SIR reflects a 12 per cent drop, which potentially raises chances of several close contests. In the 2021 Assembly election, among the state’s 294 Assembly seats, the Trinamool cornered 215, while the BJP emerged as the principal Opposition party with 77. It thus registered a 28 percentage point jump in vote share compared to its 2016 performance.
But the BJP, as analysts have repeatedly pointed out, scores negligible success in high-Muslim areas.
West Bengal has about 85 seats where the minority population constitutes 35 per cent or above against the state average of 27 per cent, according to the 2011 Census. The largest concentration was found mainly in the districts bordering Bangladesh, like Murshidabad (more than 66 per cent), Malda (over 51), North Dinajpur (close to 50), Birbhum (37), South 24 Parganas (about 36), among others.
If other border districts – such as Nadia and North 24 Parganas – are included, where the 2011 Census noted a Muslim population at around the state average, such seats rise to around 125, where the Trinamool did particularly well, clinching most seats.
In some Assembly seats, however, the mandate favoured the BJP due to extreme polarisation.
Thus, Trinamool candidates faced defeat in Malda’s Englishbazar by over 20,000 votes, Habibpur by 19,517 votes, Gazole by less than 2,000 votes, and in Maldaha Assembly constituency, by more than 15,000 votes. Significantly, in the 2024 Parliamentary election, out of the 12 Assembly segments in Malda district, the BJP and Congress led in six each, leaving none for the Trinamool.
In Murshidabad, the BJP won two of the 22 assembly constituencies in the district in the 2021 Assembly election. Among these two seats were Baharampur and Murshidabad, where it wrested power from the incumbent Congress.
Interestingly, in Nadia, out of the 17 Assembly seats in the district, the BJP swept 10 in 2021. Also, post-SIR deletions exceed 2021 winning margins in over 140 seats, hitting the Trinamool hardest in Murshidabad (4.6 lakh cut), Malda (2.4 lakh), and North 24 Parganas (3.3 lakh).
Thus, in close-finish 2021 seats, if Muslim voters are disproportionately removed, the results may flip.
In the 85 minority-influenced seats, the ruling party’s dominance may erode if turnout drops 10-20 per cent, potentially costing 20-30 seats amid SIR protests and litigation.
Meanwhile, the Congress’s solo run on all 294 seats splinters anti-Trinamool votes, especially in Murshidabad and Malda, benefiting the BJP indirectly.
The BJP is eyeing over 100 seats via Hindu consolidation post-SIR, but urban-rural divides persist, and deletions in some pockets could trigger lower turnout or a backlash.
The Trinamool sits content in seats like Sujapur and Malatipur (both Malda), where it registered the highest victory margin of some 1.3 lakh votes in the former and close to 92,000 votes in the other.
In Metiaburuz of South 24 Parganas district, the Trinamool candidate won with a margin of 1.2 lakh. The return of Abu Barkat Ataur Ghani Khan Choudhury’s scion, Mausam Noor, to Congress, where she is contesting from Malatipur, may not bode well for Trinamool in this contest. Also precariously poised are 40 seats where, going by the number of mandates in the last-held state poll, the victory margin was close to 5,000 votes.
