All set for counting; Nation awaits verdict in four key states on Monday

The counting of votes is set to begin in four key states — Tamil Nadu, Kerala, West Bengal, and Assam — on the morning of May 4. West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee’s TMC battles the BJP’s growing influence while Tamil Nadu’s contest was disrupted by actor Vijay’s new party. Kerala faces a historic test as Pinarayi Vijayan’s LDF seeks a third consecutive term. Meanwhile, Assam appears set to deliver the BJP-led NDA a third straight victory under Himanta Biswa Sarma.

New Delhi: Nearly 25 crore people in Tamil Nadu, Kerala, West Bengal, and Assam have just finished voting in one of the most important elections in recent times.

As we wait for the official results on Monday, early data shows a major struggle between local state pride and national goals.

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These elections are more than just local races; they are a massive test to see if voters prefer state welfare programmes or the Central government’s vision.

In West Bengal, the excitement reached an all-time high with a record-breaking 92.93 per cent of voters showing up to the polls.

This figure represents more than just a high participation rate; it signifies a state on the brink of a potentially era-defining transition.

West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee and the Trinamool Congress (TMC) are battling for a fourth consecutive term against a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) that has transformed from a marginal player to a formidable contender.

The intensity of this battle was underscored by a massive mobilisation of security forces and a narrative dominated by the fallout of the RG Kar Medical College tragedy, which catalysed public sentiment around women’s safety and systemic accountability.

While the TMC relies on its entrenched grassroots network and welfare schemes like Lakshmir Bhandar, the BJP’s strategy focused on capitalising on anti-incumbency and administrative lapses.

Exit polls suggest a razor-thin margin where every decimal point of vote share could dictate whether Chief Minister Banerjee retains her citadel or the BJP marks its first-ever victory in the East, a result that would fundamentally alter the national Opposition’s leadership structure.

Further South, Tamil Nadu has delivered its own record-breaking performance with an 85.1 per cent turnout. The traditionally bipolar contest between the DMK and AIADMK has been disrupted by the entry of actor Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK). Internal surveys and exit projections indicate that while Chief Minister MK Stalin’s DMK-led alliance remains the frontrunner with projections between 120 and 145 seats, the TVK has emerged as a potent third force.

The data suggests that Vijay’s party could capture a significant 30 per cent vote share in specific urban pockets like Chennai and Madurai.

This fragmentation poses a long-term challenge to the Dravidian status quo.

If the DMK secures its second consecutive term, it will be a validation of the Dravidian Model of social justice; however, a strong showing by the TVK could signal the beginning of a new era of tri-polar politics in a state that has long resisted outside influences.

Kerala, meanwhile, is testing the limits of incumbency. The Left Democratic Front (LDF), under Pinarayi Vijayan, is attempting a historic third consecutive term, a feat never achieved in the state’s modern history. However, the data points to a tight squeeze, with the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) projected to hover around the 72-seat mark in the 140-member House.

The election was fought on structural issues rather than just ideology, specifically the widening gap between high literacy and low entry-level wages, which has driven an exodus of youth to foreign markets.

The UDF’s potential revival in Kerala is not just a local win; it is a lifeline for the Congress at a national level, proving its ability to lead a major alliance to victory without being a junior partner.

In the Northeast, Assam presents a picture of consolidation.

The BJP-led NDA, steered by Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, appears positioned to score a hat-trick.

Exit polls project the NDA securing between 85 and 100 seats in the 126-member Assembly.

This dominance reflects a successful blending of ethnic identity politics with centralised development narratives.

The Congress-led Opposition, despite forming a six-party front, has struggled to dismantle the BJP’s robust organisational machinery.

A comfortable win here would cement Assam as the permanent headquarters of the BJP’s Northeastern expansion.

As the nation awaits the final tally, the underlying logic is clear: Indian voters are rewarding visible governance but are increasingly sensitive to issues of safety, migration, and economic aspiration.

Whether it is the staggering turnout in Bengal or the celebrity-fuelled disruption in Tamil Nadu, the 2026 elections demonstrate that the Indian electorate is far from predictable.

These results will dictate the momentum for the 2029 general elections, determining whether the current national dominance continues unabated or if a revitalised regional and Opposition front can reclaim the narrative.