China could take control of Taiwan without firing a shot, warns think tank

Beijing could enforce full or partial quarantine of Taiwan, potentially cutting off access to its ports and essential supplies, such as energy, for the island's 23 million people

Washington: China’s military could isolate Taiwan, cripple its economy, and compel the democratic island to submit to Beijing’s Communist Party without firing a shot, CNN reported citing a Washington think tank.

There are concerns about the Communist Party‘s intentions to take control of Taiwan, potentially by force, which have intensified due to Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s increasingly aggressive stance towards the self-governed island. China’s refusal to condemn Russia‘s invasion of Ukraine has further fueled these fears.

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According to CNN, analysts and military strategists said there are two key options available to China — a full-scale invasion or a military blockade. However, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington highlights a third option: quarantine.

This method, using ‘gray zone’ tactics, involves actions just below the threshold of war. The China Coast Guard, its maritime militia and various police and maritime safety agencies could enforce a full or partial quarantine of Taiwan, potentially cutting off access to its ports and essential supplies, such as energy, for the island’s 23 million people.

The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) might play only auxiliary and support roles, according to CSIS authors Bonny Lin, Brian Hart, Matthew Funaiole, Samantha Lu, and Truly Tinsley.

“China has significantly increased pressure on Taiwan in recent years, stoking fears that tensions could erupt into outright conflict. Much attention has been paid to the threat of an invasion, but Beijing has options besides invading to coerce, punish, or annex Taiwan,” the report says.

Recently, China’s Minister of National Defence Admiral Dong Jun warned “external forces” for emboldening Taiwan Independence separatists in an attempt to contain China with Taiwan and said that these malicious intentions are dragging Taiwan into a dangerous situation.”

He said anyone who dares to separate Taiwan from China will “end up in self-destruction”. He accused the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) authorities of pursuing Taiwan’s separation in an incremental manner and added that they are bent on erasing the Chinese identity of Taiwan.

Since September 2020, China has intensified its use of gray zone tactics by increasing the number of military aircraft and naval ships that operate near Taiwan’s territory.

Gray zone tactics are called “an effort or series of efforts beyond steady-state deterrence and assurance that attempts to achieve one’s security objectives without resort to direct and sizable use of force,” according to Taiwan News.

This latest incident adds to a series of similar provocations by China in recent months. China has increased its military activities around Taiwan, including regular air and naval incursions into Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ).

Taiwan, officially known as the Republic of China, has long been a contentious issue in China’s foreign policy. China continues to assert its sovereignty over Taiwan and considers it a part of its territory and insists on eventual reunification, by force if necessary.