Crude oil prices may recover as supply stabilises and tensions ease

Traders are focused on the July 5 OPEC+ meeting, where a third consecutive production hike of 4,11,000 barrels per day is expected to be approved for August

New Delhi: Crude oil prices may see a recovery in the near term as positive signals emerge from the supply side and geopolitical tensions show signs of easing, experts said on Saturday. While demand concerns continue to weigh on global sentiment, market experts believe crude prices could bounce back if key technical levels are sustained.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude prices remained subdued on Friday, trading near the mid USD 65 range amid thin holiday trading and weak global demand. However, analysts are pointing to a potential turnaround, especially with key events like the OPEC+ meeting and the US tariff deadline on the horizon.

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Tejas Shigrekar, Chief Technical Research Analyst — Commodities and Currencies at Angel One Ltd, said the crude oil outlook remains mixed, but there are reasons for cautious optimism. He noted that while demand has been hit due to slowdowns in global manufacturing –particularly in China and the Eurozone — OPEC+ production cuts are still keeping global supply tight.

“These cuts, mainly led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, have helped prevent a deeper fall in prices,” he explained. “Even with softer demand projections from OECD countries, the coordinated output curbs are providing a floor to prices,” Shigrekar said.

“And unless there’s a major supply shock, crude futures are likely to remain in a broad range, supported by strategic buying,” he stated. Geopolitical risks, which had earlier pushed prices higher, have somewhat eased after the ceasefire between Iran and Israel.

Iran’s renewed commitment to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty has also helped calm the market. While tensions in the South China Sea and the Middle East persist, there has been no major disruption to global supply chains so far.

Traders are now focused on the July 5 OPEC+ meeting, where a third consecutive production hike of 411,000 barrels per day is expected to be approved for August. From a technical point of view, Shigrekar believes a price rebound is possible if WTI crude holds above the USD 62.70 support level.

A break above Rs 5,780 could push domestic crude prices to Rs 6,000-Rs 6,200. But if support slips below Rs 5,550, we may see a drop toward Rs 5,330 or even Rs 5,000,” analysts mentioned.