Gold prices rise nearly 10 per cent ahead of Akshaya Tritiya, volatility persists
Gold prices have risen nearly 10 per cent in 2026 ahead of Akshaya Tritiya, driven by global uncertainty. Despite volatility and weak jewellery demand in India, long-term outlook remains positive, with investors increasingly shifting towards financial gold options like ETFs
Mumbai: As India approaches Akshaya Tritiya — traditionally seen as an auspicious occasion for buying gold — investors are weighing their options as the yellow metal navigates global uncertainty, with prices rising nearly 10 per cent so far in 2026, a report has said.
According to a report by Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd (MOFSL), despite the festive tailwinds, gold’s journey this year has remained volatile, marked by sharp swings amid a complex global backdrop and remains constructive in the long-term period.
It highlighted that gold prices are being propelled by multiple global factors, including geopolitical tensions, concerns over slowing economic growth and uncertainty surrounding interest rate movements in the US.
However, these factors have supported gold’s safe-haven appeal, intermittent strength in the US dollar and elevated bond yields have exerted pressure, resulting in a non-linear price trajectory, it said.
“Gold is currently navigating a complex global environment. While there are phases of pressure due to interest rate expectations and currency strength, the broader outlook remains supported by uncertainty, inflation concerns and long-term investment demand,” said Navneet Damani, Head of Research – Commodities at MOFSL.
On the demand side, the report highlighted contrasting trends across key markets.
In India, elevated prices have kept jewellery demand subdued and highly price-sensitive, leading to discounted domestic prices. In contrast, China has seen relatively stronger investment-led demand.
The report also pointed out that a gradual shift in India towards financial forms of gold, such as exchange-traded funds (ETFs), indicating evolving investor preferences.
Citing World Gold Council data, it said central banks purchased up to 870 tonnes of gold in 2025, reflecting continued strong buying, albeit at a slower pace than earlier years.
Meanwhile, global ETF demand has shown signs of recovery after earlier outflows, with mixed but constructive trends continuing into 2026.
“We are seeing a gradual change in how investors participate in gold. While physical buying remains important during occasions like Akshaya Tritiya, there is a clear rise in interest towards more flexible and transparent investment options,” said Manav Modi of MOFSL.
From an investment perspective, the report maintained that gold’s long-term fundamentals remain intact, supported by its role as a hedge against inflation, currency depreciation and global uncertainty.
Historically, Akshaya Tritiya has also been seen as a favourable entry point for investors, with gold delivering consistent long-term returns despite interim corrections.
On the outlook, the report said gold is likely to trade within a broad range in the near term as markets adjust to evolving global cues. While some consolidation may follow the recent rally, the medium to long-term outlook remains constructive.
Factors such as geopolitical risks, slowing global growth and the possibility of monetary easing later in the year could support prices, while a strong dollar, persistent inflation and weak physical demand may act as near-term headwinds.
For investors, the report maintained a “buy on dips” stance for investors with a medium to long-term horizon.
