India could witness more than 95 pc drop in Covid infections by June

The SUTRA mathematical model forecast that by the end of June, the country will be left with a daily average of just 15, 000 new Covid positive cases

Hyderabad: Here is some encouraging news in the gloom of the Covid-19 second wave!  The country could witness more than 95 per cent drop in daily new Covid infections by June end, according to SUTRA, a mathematical model for the pandemic developed by researchers from IIT Kanpur.

The Covid mathematical model also forecasts a drop of more than 90 percent of the daily new Covid cases in Telangana by the end of this month.

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The SUTRA mathematical model forecast that by the end of June, the country will be left with a daily average of just 15, 000 new Covid positive cases, which is a significant dip from the present daily average of under two lakh new Covid positive infections.

Interestingly, the SUTRA model of IIT Kanpur is surprisingly accurate with Singapore University survey/research that was taken-up on 131 countries. The Singapore University researchers too had forecast that India will be 97 percent free of Covid-19 by the later half of June.

The below graph shows the projection in the Telangana State

(Source:https://www.sutra-india.in/)

According to the SUTRA mathematical model for pandemics, authored by M Agrawal (IIT Kanpur),  M Kanitkar (Integrated Defence Staff) and M Vidyasagar from IIT Hyderabad,  the average daily Covid positive cases in Telangana will drop to 1000 by the first week of June.

According to the researchers, SUTRA is an acronym that stands for Susceptible, Undetected, Tested (positive) and Removed Approach.

“There are several novel features in this model. First, whereas previous papers have divided the patient population into Asymptomatic and Infected, SUTRA explicitly accounts for the fact that there would be large numbers of undetected asymptomatic patients.

Second, the model explicitly takes into account the spatial spread of a pandemic over time, through a parameter called “reach.”

Third, the model uses numerically stable methods for estimating the values of all the parameters using the daily new infections data series. All data used for modelling is from www.covid19india.org,” the researchers said.

For details visit: sutra-india.in

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