India, Nigeria account for one-third of global under-five deaths in 2023

A study found that India and Nigeria accounted for nearly one-third of global under-five deaths in 2023. While child mortality has declined significantly since 1990, several countries are unlikely to meet UN targets by 2030

New Delhi: The absolute number of deaths among children aged five years or less in India and Nigeria accounted for about one-third of the global under-five deaths in 2023, according to a new study.

The estimates published in the journal PLOS One suggested 0.64 million deaths in India and 0.77 million in Nigeria that year.

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Researchers from China’s Peking University said that globally, the number of under-five deaths decreased by 63 per cent, from 12.98 million in 1990 to 4.78 million in 2023.

The under-five mortality rate also declined by an average of 3.18 per cent per year, from 93.58 deaths per 1,000 live births in 1990 to 36.72 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2023.

Despite this progress, 58 countries are not expected to meet the UN Sustainable Development Goal target of fewer than 25 deaths per 1,000 live births by 2030, the researchers projected.

“As the SDG era enters its final years, it is time to take stock of worldwide trends in U5MRs and progress towards SDG target 3.2,” the authors said.

Nine countries, including India, Nepal and Bangladesh, are expected to meet the SDG target by 2030 if the average rate of decline from 1990 to 2023 continues, the team said.

Twenty two countries and territories, such as Myanmar, Kenya and Yemen, are projected to meet the SDG target by 2040, while another 10 countries, including Sudan and Angola, are projected to achieve the target between 2041 and 2050.

Pakistan was found to be among the 25 countries and territories projected to achieve the SDG target after 2050.

However, the global rate still stands at 36.72 deaths per 1,000 live births, well above the SDG target, and is not projected to reach the target until 2035.

More than four-fifths of all under-five deaths worldwide are concentrated in just two regions: Sub-Saharan Africa, where the mortality rate remains at 68.82 deaths per 1,000 live births and is not projected to meet the SDG target until 2055, and Central and Southern Asia.

“Across the 200 countries and territories worldwide, the absolute number of under-five deaths in Nigeria (0.77 million) and India (0.64 million) accounted for approximately one-third of the global under-five deaths (4.78 million) in 2023,” the authors wrote.

The researchers analysed data from the UN to plot trends in annual under-five death counts and mortality rates from 1990 to 2023 across 200 countries and territories.