India’s birth rate falls below replacement level, Elon Musk highlights fertility decline

Elon Musk has highlighted India's declining fertility rate after data showed the country's total fertility rate fell to 1.9 births per woman, below replacement level. Experts cite urbanisation, education and changing family preferences as key factors behind the trend.

New Delhi: SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has drawn attention to India’s declining birth rate, highlighting that the country’s fertility rate has fallen below the replacement level required to maintain population stability.

In a post on social media platform X, Musk said, “India’s birth rate has fallen below replacement. Among those most educated, India’s birth rate fell below replacement many years ago.”

---

Musk was responding to data shared by media outlet AF Post, which noted that India’s total fertility rate (TFR) has dropped below the replacement threshold of 2.1 children per woman for the first time in the country’s history. According to the post, India’s fertility rate declined from 2.3 to 1.9 over the past decade.

It also highlighted that Delhi’s fertility rate has fallen to 1.2, lower than that of Finland.

The AF Post report cited a June 4 article published by The Economist, which argued that India’s population could begin shrinking in the coming years and may decline at a faster pace than previously anticipated.

The trend was also highlighted in the United Nations Population Fund’s (UNFPA) 2025 State of World Population Report.

The report stated that India’s total fertility rate has fallen to 1.9 births per woman, below the replacement level of 2.1. A fertility rate below replacement level means that, in the absence of migration, a population will eventually begin to decline as each generation becomes smaller than the one before it.

Despite the decline in fertility, India remains the world’s most populous nation with a population exceeding 1.46 billion. The country overtook China in 2023 to claim the top position globally.

The UNFPA noted that while India has made significant progress in healthcare and education, major challenges remain. According to the agency, wide social and economic inequalities persist, while maternal mortality and gender discrimination continue to pose concerns in several parts of the country.

The organisation also pointed to early marriage and teenage pregnancies as key factors contributing to maternal deaths among women under the age of 24.

Experts have long observed that rising education levels, urbanisation, increased workforce participation among women and changing family preferences have contributed to declining fertility rates across many regions of India.