ISI plot to provoke India amid Bangladesh unrest: Intel sources

Intelligence agencies in New Delhi have warned of a deliberate ISI-backed plan to provoke India into military action against Bangladesh. Following Sheikh Hasina’s ouster in August 2024 and the rise of Muhammad Yunus as caretaker leader, the country has witnessed daily violence and persecution of minorities.

New Delhi: With the situation in Bangladesh going from bad to worse, Intelligence agencies have learnt that there is a deliberate attempt by the ISI to provoke India. The plan is to provoke India into attacking Bangladesh, so that it garners international attention, agencies have learnt.

The ISI-backed elements are provoking people, stating that India is protecting ousted leader Sheikh Hasina, while backing her party, the Awami League. The August 2024 uprising managed to create an anti-Hasina wave across the country, and this is being taken advantage of by the ISI.

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Following her ouster, she fled to India and remained in New Delhi since then. Following the collapse of the Sheikh Hasina government and the subsequent takeover by Muhammad Yunus as caretaker of the interim government, chaos ensued throughout the country. Street violence has become a daily routine apart from the persecution of the minority community.

An official stated that there is a significant amount of anti-India sentiment that the ISI has managed to cultivate over the past year. However, the systematic persecution of the minority community, especially the Hindus, is a clear attempt to provoke India. In the last couple of days, disturbing visuals of a Hindu man being lynched have been in circulation.

ISI-backed handles are deliberately making these clips go viral in India so that it provokes the general public. The aim is to provoke the Indian public to such an extent that they put pressure on the government to act militarily against Bangladesh. The other intention is make India look like the aggressor in the international community, an official said.

An official says that India’s intention is not to be the aggressor. However, it will do everything it can to protect its integrity and sovereignty. Moreover, the ISI is well aware that any such action could derail the February 2026 elections. This is what the ISI and Jamaat-e-Islami have been planning, as they want the elections to be postponed or cancelled. If this were to take place, they would run the country the way they like with their proxy Muhammad Yunus, another official said.

In addition to the lynching incidents, two student leaders have been shot in a span of a week. Osman Hadi and Motaleb Sikder, both top student leaders, were shot, and this has led to an increase in violence. The Bangladesh agencies have accused some Awami League members of shooting the two student leaders. This is being used as a tool against Sheikh Hasina and her party.

The message that is being put out is that India is sheltering the leader of a party that is responsible for the killings of Bangladeshi leaders. The ISI is trying to fuel anger against India so that the people in Bangladesh carry out more violence and develop a deep hatred for India. It is similar to what the ISI created in Pakistan, an Intelligence Bureau official said.

Experts say that New Delhi has a lot on its plate to deal with, where the Bangladesh situation is concerned. India has maintained that it wants good ties with its neighbours. With the Awami League out of the picture owing to the electoral ban, India has been reaching out to the Bangladesh National Party (BNP). The BNP is marginally ahead of the Jamaat, where votes are concerned, and has decided not to align with the Jamaat as it had done in the past.

The ISI and Jamaat will do everything to delay the elections, so that the BNP stays out of the picture. The larger intention is to keep the BNP at bay so that it does not share good ties with India. Any government that is friendly with India is detrimental to Pakistan, and this is something that it would try to avoid at any cost, another official said.