Sitharaman had in her first Budget in 2019 replaced the leather briefcase -- which was in use for decades for carrying Budget documents -- with a traditional 'bahi-khata' wrapped in red cloth
New Delhi: Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will present her record 8th straight Budget and all eyes will be on the much-expected tax relief for the middle class.
Sitharaman had in her first Budget in 2019 replaced the leather briefcase — which was in use for decades for carrying Budget documents — with a traditional ‘bahi-khata’ wrapped in red cloth. This year’s Budget would be in paperless form, as done in the last three years.
Here are the key numbers to watch out for in the Union Budget for 2025-26:
Spotlight would also be on spending on key schemes like NREGA as well as key sectors like health and education.
PM Dhan-Dhaanya Krishi Yojana for developing Agri Districts Programme to cover 100 districts with low productivity: FM.
New provision for importers, exporters to voluntarily declare material facts after clearance of goods: FM.
New income tax bill will be half of the current volume; clear and direct in wording: FM.
Reforms are not destinations but means to achieve good governance for our people and economy, says FM.
Tax proposals guided by income tax reforms for middle class, TDS rationalisation, and easing compliance burden: FM.
Govt announces scheme to further promote handicraft exports.
Govt to fully exempt wet blue leather from Basic Customs Duty, says FM.
10,000 fellowships to be provided under PM Research Fellowship scheme in next five years for technological research in IITs, IISc: FM.
Budget sets time limit of 2 years, extendable by a year, for finalising provisional assessment under Customs Act: FM.
Govt to reduce Basic Customs Duty to 5 pc from 30pc on fish pasteurii: FM.
Govt to continue exemption of BCD on raw materials, components used for manufacturing of ships for another 10 years: FM.
Capex lowered to Rs 10.18 lakh crore from Rs 11.11 lakh crore estimated earlier for FY25: FM.
Govt to exempt basic custom duty on 37 more medicines: FM.
36 drugs for cancer, rare diseases to be exempt from basic customs duty, says FM.
Govt exempts cobalt product, LED, zinc, lithium-ion battery scrap and 12 critical minerals from basic Customs Duty: FM.
To rectify inverted duty structure, govt to increase basic customs duty on interactive flat panel display to 20pc from 10pc: FM.
Govt to exempt social welfare surcharge on 82 tariff lines that are subject to cess: FM.
Investment friendliness Index of states to be launched this year: FM.
Govt to set up high level committee for regulatory reforms on all non-financial sectors: FM.
Net market borrowings estimated at Rs 11.54 lakh crore for next fiscal: FM.
Fiscal deficit for FY25 at 4.8 pc of GDP, at 4.4 pc for FY26: FM.
Jan Vishwas Bill 2.0 to be brought to decriminalise more than 100 offences: FM.
Requirements and procedures for speedy approval for company mergers will be widened and process to be made simple: FM.
Model Bilateral investment treaty to be revamped to make it investor-friendly: FM Sitharaman.
Our regulations must keep with technological innovation; we will update norms made under old laws: FM Sitharaman.
NaBFID to set up partial credit enhancement facility for corporate bonds, says Finance Minister.
Government to introduce new Income Tax Bill next week in Parliament to take forward 'trust first, scrutinise later' concept: FM.
Government has implemented several reforms for convenience of taxpayers: FM.
Government to facilitate upgradation of air cargo warehousing for high-value perishable horticulture items: FM.
Bharat Trade Net, a digital public infrastructure, will be set up for international trade: FM Sitharaman.
Revamped central KYC registry will be rolled out in 2025: FM Sitharaman.
Government to deepen and expand services of India Post payments bank in rural areas: FM.
FDI limit in insurance sector to be raised from 74 per cent to 100 per cent: says FM.
Rs 20,000 crore to be given for promoting innovation in partnership with private sector, says FM.
Govt to set up Gyaan Bharat Mission for survey, documentation and conservation of manuscript heritage: FM.
Govt to set up 2nd gene bank with 10 lakh germplasm for future food and nutritional security: FM.
Finance Minister Sitharaman announces National Spatial Mission.
In next 5 years, 10,000 fellowships for tech research in IIT and IISCs to be provided: FM.
Govt to provide mudra loans to homestays, improving ease of travel and connectivity to tourist destinations: FM.
Govt to launch modified UDAN scheme to connect 120 destinations, help 4 crore additional passengers in next 10 years: FM.
Govt to facilitate greenfield airports in Bihar to meet future needs of the state: FM Sitharaman.
Govt to develop top 50 tourist sites in partnership with states: FM Sitharaman.
Govt to encourage minor minerals through best practices and institutions of state mining: FM.
Maritime Development fund with corpus of Rs 25,000 crore to be set up for distributing support and promoting competition: FM.
Additional borrowing of 0.5 pc of state GDP to be allowed to strengthen electricity distribution & transmission companies: FM.
Additional 40,000 units of affordable housing to be completed in 2025: FM.
--We will incentivise electricity distribution reforms and intra-state transmission capacity to improve financial health of DISCOMS: FM.
--Govt to allocate Rs 10,000 cr under Urban Challenge Fund for 2025-26 fiscal: FM
--Govt to set up urban challenge fund of Rs 1 lakh crore to finance up to 25 pc of bankable projects: FM
'Miscellaneous Capital Receipts' -- which include proceeds from disinvestment and asset monetisation -- was pegged at Rs 50,000 crore in FY25 Budget. The FY26 Budget will give a number for next year and a broader asset monetisation roadmap.
Dividend: The government estimated Rs 2.33 lakh crore from the RBI and financial institutions and Rs 56,260 crore from CPSEs as dividends in FY25. These two key non-tax revenue numbers will be looked for in FY26 Budget projections.
India's nominal GDP growth (real GDP plus inflation) in FY25 is estimated to be 10.5 per cent, while the Real GDP growth estimated by NSO is 6.4 per cent. FY26 nominal GDP growth projections in the Budget will give an idea about the inflation trajectory in the next fiscal
Fiscal Deficit: The budgeted fiscal deficit, which is the difference between the government expenditure and income, for the current fiscal (April 2024 to March 2025 or FY25) is estimated at 4.9 per cent of the GDP. As per the fiscal consolidation roadmap, the deficit is to be brought down to 4.5 per cent of GDP in FY26. Markets will keenly watch for the deficit number in the FY26 Budget.
Capital Expenditure: The government's planned capital expenditure for this fiscal year is budgeted at Rs 11.1 lakh crore. However, slower government spending in the first four months due to Lok Sabha elections delayed the capex cycle and the final numbers for the current fiscal are expected to be lower than budgeted. The capex momentum is expected to continue in the FY26 Budget as well.
Debt Roadmap: The finance minister, in her 2024-25 budget speech, had stated that from 2026-27 onwards the endeavour of fiscal policy would be to maintain the fiscal deficit in a way that the central government debt is on a declining path as a percentage of the GDP. Markets would closely look for the debt consolidation roadmap from FY27 onwards to see when the finance minister sees general government debt-to-GDP fall to the 60 per cent target. TheRBI general government debt-to-GDP ratio was 85 per cent in 2024, which included central government debt of 57 per cent.
Borrowing: The government's gross borrowing Budget was Rs 14.01 lakh crore in FY25. The government borrows from the market to fund its fiscal deficit. The borrowing number will be watched by the market, especially on the back of lower dividends from the RBI in FY26 compared to Rs 2.11 lakh crore in FY25.
Tax Revenue: The 2024-25 Budget had pegged gross tax revenue at Rs 38.40 lakh crore, an 11.72 per cent growth over FY24. This includes Rs 22.07 lakh crore estimated to come from direct taxes (personal income tax + corporate tax), and Rs 16.33 lakh crore from indirect taxes (customs + excise duty + GST).
GST: Goods and Services Tax (GST) collection in 2024-25 is estimated to rise 11 per cent to Rs 10.62 lakh crore. FY '26 GST revenue projections will be watched as the revenue growth has slowed over the last three months in the current fiscal.