Monsoon hits a bottleneck, progress stalls across Telangana and Andhra Pradesh

The Southwest Monsoon has temporarily stalled, delaying its advance across Telangana, Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra. Weather experts and climate researchers attribute the slowdown to dry air intrusion and El Nino conditions, raising concerns over rainfall availability for the Kharif agricultural season.

Hyderabad: The advancement of the Southwest Monsoon has come to a temporary halt, leaving Telangana and other key agricultural states, including Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh, caught in a prolonged waiting game for the seasonal rains to fully cover their entire territories.

While the India Meteorological Department (IMD), New Delhi, maintained on Wednesday that conditions are favourable for further advancement of the monsoon in the next three to four days, the monsoon limits have failed to make any real progress from their present position.

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For the past several days, independent weather researchers across the globe have been indicating the distinct possibility of the Southwest Monsoon stalling until at least the third week of June (between June 15 and 18).

On June 5, Dr Akshay Deoras, a senior research scientist at the National Centre for Atmospheric Science and Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, UK, posted on X: “The monsoon will continue its progression until June 8, during which it will advance into Karnataka, more parts of Tamil Nadu, some parts of Andhra Pradesh, Goa, South Konkan and northeastern states. Thereafter, its progression is likely to halt or slow down until at least June 15.”

A few days later, Dr Deoras explained on X: “Early forecasts suggest that an intrusion of dry air from the northwest will likely obstruct the progression of the monsoon in India for some days after June 6.”

Pointing to the visible deceleration of the monsoon, Jason Nicholls, Senior Meteorologist and Lead International Forecaster for AccuWeather, took to X on Wednesday to acknowledge the phenomenon.

“The monsoon advance will remain slow over the next few days, but may reach more portions of Maharashtra, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh and perhaps parts of West Bengal by Monday.”

Apart from international climate scientists, independent amateur weather trackers have been equally vocal about the sluggish nature of the monsoon and the El Nino effect.

On June 8, B Sai Praneeth, a prominent weather blogger from Andhra Pradesh who was specially recognised for his accurate and responsible hyper-local weather reporting by Prime Minister Narendra Modi during the 79th episode of Mann Ki Baat, posted on X: “Conditions are looking firm for the monsoon axis to stall around the Vijayawada-North TG belt till the third week of June as there are no good conditions for it to progress. El Nino atrocities have begun for this year’s monsoon. It also means continuous hot days ahead after the ongoing rainy period.”

The stalling of the Southwest Monsoon in states such as Telangana, Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh means the continuation of erratic and sporadic pre-monsoon thundershowers rather than the steady and sustained rainfall required for Kharif operations.