NITI Aayog CEO optimistic on bilateral trade agreement with US

NITI Aayog CEO BVR Subrahmanyam expressed optimism over an early India-US trade agreement. Amid 50 per cent US tariffs on Indian goods, both countries are committed to negotiations, aiming to boost competitiveness and double bilateral trade to USD500 billion by 2030

New Delhi: NITI Aayog CEO BVR Subrahmanyam on Monday exuded confidence that a trade agreement would be concluded between India and the US soon, as both countries are committed to having a mutually beneficial bilateral trade pact.

Subrahmanyam also said that India should lower tariffs and non-tariff barriers and open its markets to improve competitiveness in manufacturing. “So the good thing is, both sides are still committed to having a trade deal. So negotiations happened last month, so I think both sides are hopeful,” he told reporters while launching ‘Trade Watch Quarterly’ .

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The ties between New Delhi and Washington have come under severe stress after US President Donald Trump doubled tariffs on Indian goods in August to 50 per cent, including an additional 25 per cent duty on India’s purchase of Russian crude oil.

India had described the US action as “unfair, unjustified, and unreasonable”. Asked to comment on the impact of a whopping 50 per cent tariffs on Indian goods, Subrahmanyam said, “Building a trade channel is difficult, and unwinding a trade channel is also difficult… No impact will happen till Christmas.”

The NITI Aayog CEO, however, noted that ‘summer’ is going to be an issue if both countries do not settle the trade deal. “We are at a disadvantage…50 per cent tariffs are a major, major cost factor… There is no escaping that. People are hopeful that if the trade deal comes through by November, then there will be no disruption,” he said.

In February this year, leaders of the two countries directed officials to negotiate a proposed Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA). It was planned to conclude the first tranche of the pact by the fall (October-November) of 2025. So far, five rounds of negotiations have been held. The pact is aimed at more than doubling the bilateral trade to USD 500 billion by 2030 from the current USD 191 billion.

The US remained India’s largest trading partner for the fourth consecutive year in 2024-25, with bilateral trade valued at USD 131.84 billion (USD 86.5 billion exports). Subrahmanyam said India’s trade deficit is manageable but unbalanced.

While noting that India is absent in manufacturing intermediaries, Subrahmanyam said, “I do not think India should protect any sector.” Responding to a question on lifting curbs on investments from China, he said China is a major supplier for India as far as imports from China are concerned.

” If you are not able to sell more to China, then it is pointless…if you (India) are competitive, they will buy more products,” he said. The NITI Aayog said India’s new manufacturing policy will focus on clusters… world-class ecosystem. “We need to diversify manufacturing,” he said.