By Ratan Mani Lal In more than a month of campaigning in Uttar Pradesh, marked by charges, counter-allegations, promises and rhetoric, political parties put in everything at their disposal into the contest. The major election issues included price rise, cases of violence against women, Covid-19, unemployment, unresponsive government machinery, polarisation, favouritism and stray cattle menace. […]
By Ratan Mani Lal
In more than a month of campaigning in Uttar Pradesh, marked by charges, counter-allegations, promises and rhetoric, political parties put in everything at their disposal into the contest. The major election issues included price rise, cases of violence against women, Covid-19, unemployment, unresponsive government machinery, polarisation, favouritism and stray cattle menace. Here is an attempt to look at issues that were not exactly part of the campaign but will have a decisive impact on the verdict.
Chief Ministerial Face
Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath has an image of being a tough administrator and a hardline Hindu leader. This appeals to a section of society. It is believed that the party might think of an alternative in case it needs the support of another party (most probably the Bahujan Samaj Party). For the Samajwadi Party, Akhilesh Yadav is its chief ministerial candidate, regardless of its main ally the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) and its leader Jayant Choudhary. Akhilesh’s popularity among the youth is a factor in his favour.
For the BSP, Mayawati could be the obvious choice, but it is to be remembered that she had in 2019 appointed her brother Anand Kumar as the party’s national vice president and her nephew Akash Anand as the national coordinator. Akash Anand is tipped to be her political heir and she could seek a role for him in case her party’s support is sought in forming a government. The Congress, despite an aggressive campaign led by general secretary Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, refrained from naming anyone as the would-be chief minister.
Community
The Muslim community had risen against the Citizenship Amendment Act in late 2019 and in UP, the Yogi government had adopted a tough stance against the agitation by seizing the property of those in the forefront of the protests and putting up posters in public places with the photographs and addresses of such people. It is believed that the community has largely voted against the BJP. There are also reports that women of the community might have voted in BJP’s favour because of the law against triple talaq.
Interestingly, the All India Majlis-E-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) of Asaduddin Owaisi had campaigned across Muslim-dominated districts in UP, seeking the community’s support. In past elections too, the AIMIM sought the community’s support but to no avail. Owaisi blames Akhilesh and the SP for his failure since the SP is said to be the first choice of the community.
Caste
The large-scale desertion of the BJP by the members of the OBC community indicated that sections of the community were uncomfortable with the BJP. At the same time, Yadavs, a strong group within the OBC, started visualising the emergence of the SP as the main challenger against the BJP.
There are also indications that some non-Yadav OBCs are still strongly with the BJP as is evident from the support the party enjoys in certain parts of the State. So is the case with Dalits – a large section is known to be with the BJP even as Mayawati and her BSP continue to have the unflinching loyalty of an equally large section.
It is said that the July 2020 killing in a police encounter of a gangster of Kanpur, who was a Brahmin, had made the Brahmin community move away from the BJP, and some even termed Yogi as “anti-Brahmin.” Efforts to woo Brahmins were also made by the SP, BSP and the Congress too, even as no noteworthy Brahmin leaders quit the BJP.
Government Schemes
The Yogi government has been running several schemes, including centrally-sponsored ones, for the benefit of the weaker sections. In addition, free foodgrains are being provided to the underprivileged ever since the advent of the Covid-19. This has created a clear class of beneficiaries, who are inclined to vote for the BJP in urban as well as rural areas.
Schemes like free LPG cylinder, pension to farmers, the elderly, allowance for school uniforms – all transferred in the beneficiaries’ account under the DBT (direct benefit transfer) system – are also said to have benefited a large number of people. This might go in the BJP’s favour to some extent.
Law and Order
The campaign against criminal groups and the seizure and dismantling of property of such individuals has had a noticeable effect on the Yogi government. There have not been many reports of criminals or gangsters prevailing over the police or overwhelming police stations, as used to happen in the State some years ago.
In the present government, officers have been wary of being considered too close to the ruling party – office-bearers of the ruling party have often complained about it. Tales of members of the present-day bureaucracy reviving their contacts with the SP have been doing the rounds in Lucknow. Not only this, some officials are reported to be taking active interest in cleaning up and renovating buildings and parks launched by the previous SP government.
Interestingly, complaints about inefficiency and non-cooperation of government employees and officials in districts have been reaching the State BJP office for several months now and many in the party feel that these could have made the BJP unpopular.
Region
The seven phases of polling in UP were marked on the basis of specific regions, starting from western UP. While the first phase is adjacent to Delhi and NCR, the second is in the north, third is southwest, fourth and fifth stretch from north to south, and sixth-seventh eastern to south-eastern, bordering Bihar and some other States. There was a time when there used to be voting patterns for each region, as people in these regions had distinct party preferences.
However, this time the pattern was nowhere to be seen. The BJP and the SP have been locked in tough contests all over the State. If the BSP and the Congress do not come up with respectable numbers, then UP could well be on way to becoming a two-party state like Rajasthan and Gujarat.
Demography
The Congress campaign led by Priyanka was especially women-centric as it started with the announcement of 40% tickets to women candidates, and a slogan urging girls to fight for their rights. This was different from the campaigns by other parties that took more of a please-all approach, regardless of general promises of free electricity and loan waiver for farmers.
The SP, on the other hand, highlighted Akhilesh’s appeal as a “youth” leader and his alliance with Jayant Choudhary was portrayed much on the lines of the Rahul-Akhilesh “youthful duo” in the 2017 Assembly election.
The huge turnout at roadshows, public meetings, raising issues that are relevant or not, are all part of electioneering in India. More than these, it is the undercurrents that matter.
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