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Forex traders noted that encouraging macroeconomic data, combined with the 90-day relief from US reciprocal tariffs, spurred foreign investors to buy into domestic equities, which in turn boosted the local currency.
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In early trade at the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 86.22 against the US dollar, marking a gain of 46 paise from its previous close. It later strengthened further to 86.17. On Wednesday, the local currency had settled at 86.68 against the greenback.
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Forex traders noted that even with a sharp decline in crude oil prices and a weakening US dollar, concerns over a potential global trade war continued to spark fears of an economic downturn, triggering foreign fund outflows and leaving stock markets in a state of shock.
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Forex traders said that despite a sharp drop in crude oil prices and a weakening US dollar, the domestic currency remained under pressure due to continuous foreign fund outflows triggered by global market sell-offs.
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The rupee’s rebound has been driven primarily by a decline in crude oil prices and the weakening of the US dollar in global markets. According to forex traders, the greenback lost ground due to growing concerns over inflationary pressures, triggered by tariffs and the looming threat of a potential recession in the United States.
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Forex traders attributed the rupee’s gains to FPIs becoming net buyers in equities for the second time this week while making substantial investments in debt. At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 86.26 against the US dollar, strengthened further, and reached 86.19, marking an appreciation of 17 paise from its previous close.
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The rupee dropped 5 paise to 85.69 against the US dollar in early trade, the first session of 2025
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Forex traders noted that the rupee remains stable within a narrow range due to active intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). In the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened at 83.97 against the US dollar, up by 2 paise from its previous close.
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Forex traders noted that foreign institutional inflows, along with notable corrections in asset classes such as the dollar index and crude oil prices, supported the rupee. Additionally, the Reserve Bank's active intervention helped maintain the rupee within a narrow range.
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The dollar index, measuring the greenback's strength against six major currencies, fell 0.14% to 101.67. Meanwhile, Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, dropped 0.62% to 73.29 in futures trading.
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Forex traders noted that foreign fund outflows from Indian equities, triggered by the government's capital gains tax hike, pressured the local currency and limited its gains.
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Forex traders noted that the domestic unit was dragged down by a volatile equity market and continued outflow of foreign funds.
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Forex trader said, however, the Indian currency was under pressure due to subdued equity market sentiment and elevated level of crude oil prices.
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Analysts: Foreign Investors' Selling Pressure and High Oil Prices Hinder Rupee's Sharp Gain
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Forex traders said a strong American currency and elevated crude oil prices, however, weighed on the local unit
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Forex traders said the interim budget had a positive impact on the domestic currency as it highlighted a reduction in the fiscal deficit to 5.1 per cent of GDP for FY25.
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At the interbank foreign exchange, the domestic unit opened at 83.10, then touched a high of 82.99 against the American currency, registering a rise of 9 paise over its last close.
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Forex traders said the rupee is trading lower on strong dollar and foreign fund outflows over the past few days.
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The dollar index, which gauges the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, fell marginally by 0.01 per cent to 101.34.
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Strengthening crude prices in international markets capped the gains in the domestic unit, forex traders said.