Telangana witnesses sharp decline in fertility rates

The dramatic decline of fertility rates in the State is a clear indication of the challenges, including dwindling young workforce and the economic burden due to healthcare costs and other social security systems due to an aging population, which the state has to focus proactively.

Hyderabad: In the coming decades, Telangana State will have very few young people and large number of senior citizens to take care.

The dramatic decline of fertility rates in the State is a clear indication of the challenges, including dwindling young workforce and the economic burden due to healthcare costs and other social security systems due to an aging population, which the state has to focus proactively.

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Based on the this year’s analysis presented in the Economic Survey (2023-24) by Government of India, the fertility rate of Andhra Pradesh (the then united Andhra Pradesh) way back on 1992-93 was 2.6, which means the number of children (average) born alive to women of a specific age group, in comparison to the total number of women in that same age group. However, by 2021, the fertility rates in TS have drastically dropped to just 1.7.

A recent worldwide report on reduction of fertility rates, published in Lancet (May, 2024), said that the average fertility rate forecast by 2050 for India will be 1.29. At present, the countrywide total fertility rate is 1.91 while the fertility rate in all the Southern Indian States, which are far more developed in all aspects including health, education and economic opportunities, hovers between 1.7 and 1.8.

The drop in fertility rates in South Indian states is expected to continue and in all likelihood by 2050, it would be less than the forecasted national average of 1.29.

Senior public health workers from Telangana, who are familiar with the issue, said that major factors for the steep drop in fertility rates are obesity, stress, smoking, environmental pollution, promotion of smaller families, improved infant mortality rates, mortality rates, socioeconomic changes like urbanization, rise in women workforce, improvement in women’s education that usually causes delay in childbearing.

The sharp rise in infertility health clinics across Hyderabad and other major urban centres in Telangana and other Indian states is a clear indication of the rising infertility rates. Based on various sources, the IVF market in the country is expected to increase and reach 3.7 billion by 2030 from 793 million in 2020 in India.

Lancet fertility rate projections for India:

1950: 6.18

1980: 4.6

2021: 1.91

2050: 1.29

2100: 1.04

Fertility rate data: (Source: National Family Health Survey-5)

• National Average: 1.9 to 2.0 children per woman

• Delhi – 1.6

• Telangana – 1.8

• Andhra Pradesh – 1.7

• Gujarat – 1.9

• Karnataka – 1.7

• Kerala – 1.8

• Tamil Nadu – 1.8

Some important points:

• Population will remain stable if TFR of 2.1 children per woman is maintained

• In India, on an average, 2.25 lakh IVF cycles are taken-up every year

• drop in fertility rates leading to mushrooming of IVF centres even in tier-II cities

• Despite drop in fertility rates, population of India by 2050 will be 1.6 billion

• Researchers warn States must plant for emerging threats due to drop in fertility rates

Change in fertility rates over the years: (South India)

• Andhra Pradesh:

NFHS-1 (1992-93): 2.6

NFHS-2 (1998-99): 2.3

NFHS-3 (2005-06): 1.8

NFHS-4 (2015-16) 1.8

NFHS-5 (1.7)

• Telangana:

NFHS-4 (2015-16) 1.8

NFHS-5 (1.7)

• Tamil Nadu:

NFHS-1 (1992-93): 2.5

NFHS-2 (1998-99): 2.2

NFHS-3 (2005-06): 1.8

NFHS-4 (2015-16) 1.7

NFHS-5 (1.8)

• Kerala:

NFHS-1 (1992-93): 2.0

NFHS-2 (1998-99): 2.0

NFHS-3 (2005-06): 1.9

NFHS-4 (2015-16) 1.6

NFHS-5 (1.8)

• Karnataka:

NFHS-1 (1992-93): 2.9

NFHS-2 (1998-99): 2.1

NFHS-3 (2005-06): 2.1

NFHS-4 (2015-16) 1.8

NFHS-5 (1.7)

Factors influencing fertility rates: Obesity, stress, smoking, environmental pollution, promotion of smaller families, success of family planning, reduction of IMR, or improved child survival, urbanization, women employment, delaying childbearing age, choosing fewer children.