Trump tariffs, GDP data and other cues likely to drive D-Street next week

Indian markets in Mumbai will track US tariff developments, GDP data and February F&O expiry for direction. After a rebound in BSE Sensex and Nifty 50, analysts expect volatility amid global trade and macroeconomic cues

Mumbai: Investors will closely watch global developments such as tariff-related moves in the United States, along with key domestic data like GDP numbers and the monthly F&O expiry, which are likely to guide market direction in the coming week.

After witnessing sharp losses of over 1 per cent in the previous session, the Indian stock market bounced back strongly on Friday.

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The 30-share Sensex climbed 317 points, or 0.38 per cent, to close at 82,814.71. The broader Nifty also ended higher, rising 117 points, or 0.46 per cent, to settle at 25,571.25. “From a levels perspective, 25,800 stands as the immediate resistance, followed by 26,000 and 26,200,” an analyst stated.

“On the downside, key supports are located at 25,300 and 25,100. A decisive break below 25,000 could increase downside momentum and accelerate corrective pressure,” the expert mentioned.

In the broader market, performance remained mixed. The BSE 150 MidCap Index gained 0.44 per cent, while the BSE 250 SmallCap Index slipped 0.19 per cent. Going ahead, global trade developments will remain in focus.

Investors are assessing the impact of tariff-related decisions in the United States, especially any legal interpretation or policy change that could influence global trade flows.

Any major development on this front could impact global markets and, in turn, investor sentiment in India. On the domestic front, attention will shift to key economic indicators.

Market participants are awaiting the next quarterly GDP estimates under the new series, which will be released on February 27 by the Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation. Apart from GDP data, investors will also track government budget numbers, foreign exchange reserves and year-on-year infrastructure output figures for fresh cues about the health of the economy.

Market volatility may also increase due to the monthly derivatives expiry. Analysts expect fluctuations to remain high as traders adjust their positions ahead of the February F&O expiry scheduled for February 24.

Meanwhile, foreign investor activity has shown signs of improvement. According to data from the National Securities Depository Limited, foreign portfolio investors turned net buyers on nine of the last sixteen trading sessions till February 20.

Total FPI investments through exchanges stood at Rs 14,177.66 crore during this period. Additionally, FPIs invested Rs 2,733.89 crore in the primary market, taking the overall investment for February so far to Rs 16,911.55 crore.

With global trade concerns, domestic macroeconomic data and derivatives expiry lined up, analysts believe the Indian market may remain volatile but stock-specific action is likely to continue in the coming week.