War abroad, turmoil within: Pakistan’s costly gamble against Afghanistan
Pakistan’s escalating conflict with Afghanistan threatens to spiral into a long-term crisis, analysts warn, as Islamabad seeks to assert military dominance while risking internal rebellion, Taliban backlash, and friction with China over its CPEC investments.
New Delhi: A temporary truce between Pakistan and Afghanistan failed after strikes by Islamabad killed 10 Afghan people, including three cricketers. Looking at how things are shaping up between the two countries, no solution appears to be in sight any time soon.
Analysts say that Pakistan is trying to make the battle against Afghanistan the new normal. Instead of carrying out covert operations and terror strikes in Afghanistan, Pakistan is going the whole hog with its military against Kabul.
Pakistan has stated with no proof that the Afghan Taliban is backing the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). The TTP has inflicted heavy losses on the Pakistan Army, and statistics for this year show that in the first three quarters of 2025, the army has lost 2,400 of its personnel.
Officials say that Pakistan is trying to pursue a strategy that India did during Operation Sindoor. India, post the Pahalgam attack, said that any act of terror would not be treated as cross-border terror, but as an act of war. Pakistan is also trying to salvage the battered image of its army by using the military in Afghanistan.
However, the question is, can Pakistan sustain this battle? It is a well-known fact that Pakistan has military superiority over Afghanistan. Unlike Pakistan, the Taliban do not have an air force. Even when it comes to strength on the ground, Pakistan has more soldiers when compared to the Taliban.
Analysts say that although Pakistan is militarily mightier, the battle against the Taliban would not be an easy one. Unlike the Pakistani soldiers, the Taliban fighters are hardened. They have battled the US and Russian forces in the past, and hence, war is nothing new to them.
In addition to battling the Taliban, the Pakistan Army would be engaged in a battle with the non-state actors within its own boundaries. These people are largely sympathetic to the Taliban and will step into the battle when the time comes.
Moreover, the Taliban fighters do not have a proper command centre. Some of the fighters could engage in fighting due to the lack of a single command centre, and this puts at risk any ceasefire agreement reached by both sides. Pakistan has always shared a complex relationship with Afghanistan due to historic ties and shared Pashtun links.
If Pakistan has decided to make attacking Afghanistan the new normal, then this could upset many within the Pakistani security establishment. If at all the Taliban feels that it is going down to the Pakistan Army, then Taliban’s Kandahar-based supreme leader, Haibatullah Akhunzada, may step in.
He could issue a fatwa for war against the Pakistan security establishment. This would make the TTP more fierce as the outfit had pledged allegiance to Akhunzada in 2021. Akhunzada also has major clout in Pakistan. He is held in high religious regard by many religious schools in Pakistan.
Scores of religious leaders and students across Pakistan follow Akhunzada. If Akhunzada were to make a call against Islamabad, then more internal problems would be added to Pakistan’s already long list of worries. The Pakistan Army would also come under immense pressure from the Islamist political groups in the country.
They would not, at any cost, support going all out against the Taliban. Further, Pakistan’s all-out war against the Taliban would boost support for the group within Afghanistan. Currently, there is resentment for the regime, but if the country comes under heavy attack, then support for the Taliban locally may grow.
Pakistan would also have to take into account the China factor, which has called for peace immediately. China has roped in Afghanistan into the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor Project 2.0 (CPEC). Beijing will not allow any hiccups to that project, and hence, peace is a necessity for China at any cost. It would not want a repeat of the CPEC 1, where the project came under heavy attacks, leading to massive losses.
