80 per cent probability of El Nino raises concerns over food prices

A Bank of Baroda Research report warns of an 80 per cent probability of El Niño during June-August, raising concerns over food inflation. Despite healthy reservoir levels and adequate vegetable supplies, higher fuel costs and weather uncertainties could push inflation higher in FY27

New Delhi: There is 80 per cent likelihood of an El Nino event during the June–August period and probabilities for this, to continue until at least November, are near or above 90 per cent, according to a new report. However, the reservoir level is more than normal storage (till June 11) in the country and the arrivals statistics of vegetables are also satisfactory.

“Only coming days will tell us whether the supply conditions are sufficient from any incipient shock from food and fuel on inflation or not”, said the Bank of Baroda Research note.

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According to economist Dipanwita Mazumdar, CPI inflation is projected to settle in the range of 5.2 per cent–5.5 per cent in FY27, assuming some impact from El Nino and an average crude oil price of $90–100 per barrel.

Headline CPI inflation came in at 3.9 per cent in May 2026, lower than BoB Research’s estimate of 4.1 per cent and up from 3.5 per cent in April.

The increase was largely driven by higher food and fuel prices, with food inflation rising to 4.8 per cent.

Transport inflation accelerated following the recent petrol and diesel price hikes, while restaurant and accommodation services inflation also moved higher.

Core inflation (excluding food and fuel) increased to 3.9 per cent, indicating emerging underlying price pressures.

Looking ahead, BoB Research expects inflationary risks from higher fuel costs and weather-related uncertainties, particularly the likelihood of El Nino conditions impacting food prices.

“For food inflation, the spillover of higher fuel cost and likely increase in freight cost might feed into further high inflation in the near term. Hence the second-round pass-through needs to be closely monitored, especially when weather-related risks are elevated this year,” said the report.

Going forward, “we believe that upside risks to core will intensify as firms might pass through some degree of higher input costs to consumers amidst stable demand conditions. The risks on food inflation is also likely to intensify in the coming days,” the report added.