Chances of new Covid wave remote, say experts

Hyderabad: Chances of a fresh surge and a new wave of Covid infections with a potential to cripple various aspects of life in the coming months is very remote. A combination of high levels of vaccination and naturally acquired immunity among people of Telangana makes it very difficult for the coronavirus to mutate into newer […]

Hyderabad: Chances of a fresh surge and a new wave of Covid infections with a potential to cripple various aspects of life in the coming months is very remote. A combination of high levels of vaccination and naturally acquired immunity among people of Telangana makes it very difficult for the coronavirus to mutate into newer and deadlier forms, senior public health officials and experts tracking coronavirus variants said on Sunday.

“We don’t see any new major coronavirus variant or a fresh Covid wave happening anytime soon. The Omicron variant itself was not at all mild but we managed to beat it in 40 to 45 days. Even today, it remains active in Europe and US. However, in Telangana and across India, Omicron was not severe because of vaccines and natural immunity among public. It is time for people of Telangana to get on with their lives,” says Director of Public Health (DPH), Telangana, Dr G Srinivasa Rao.

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Apart from the top public health official, senior researchers from IIT-Kanpur and IIT-Hyderabad, who developed the SUTRA mathematical model for pandemics and have achieved success in accurately projecting the trajectory of the three Covid waves in India, have urged people not to get unduly worried about reports of new Covid variants.

Unlike India, which has high percentage of vaccination, in the US and a few European countries, there was still a large section of unvaccinated population, which left a door open for the coronavirus to mutate, researchers said. “In US and a few other countries, there are still a large number of unvaccinated individuals, despite availability of vaccines. The Delta variant was still there in the community when countries like US and others were hit by Omicron. This created a lot of opportunities for the two different variants to cross paths. However, in India, there was a clear demarcation. Delta wave ended in August-September of last year and in December, Omicron was reported. I urge people not to pay any attention to reports of new or hybrid variants, unless they are declared as variants of concern,” says Dr M Vidyasagar, SERB National Science Chair at IIT-Hyderabad and a member of the SUTRA consortium.

Another senior researcher from SUTRA model and professor, Computer Science, IIT-Kanpur, Dr Manindra Agrawal said, “Nearly 90 per cent of the population in India has natural immunity now and any major fourth wave appears unlikely, unless there is a mutant coronavirus with an ability to bypass the natural immunity very significantly”.