Editorial: Explore diplomatic options
As war clouds hover over Ukraine with the Western countries warning of an imminent Russian military invasion, there is still scope for diplomatic interventions to de-escalate the tensions and prevent a catastrophic war. While United States President Joe Biden and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson have cited intelligence inputs to claim that Russia is edging perilously close to attacking Ukraine, with over 1.60 lakh troops being deployed on the border, the global powers must do everything in their command to avoid a war. On its part, India has taken a balanced and nuanced stand at the United Nations Security Council that quiet and constructive diplomacy at multiple levels was the need of the hour. It is in everybody’s interest, including India’s, to find a solution, through diplomatic negotiations, to the escalating tensions between Russia and the West over the future of Ukraine. Reports of shelling by the Russia-backed rebels in a restive province in Ukraine have triggered fears of imminent war as the western security analysts view the development as a possible precursor to a pretext for a Russian invasion. What happens next could jeopardise Europe’s entire security structure. Russia has long resisted Ukraine’s move towards European institutions, both NATO and the EU. Its core demand now is for the West to guarantee that Ukraine will not join NATO, a defensive alliance of 30 countries. Ukraine, with a population of 44 million, shares borders with both the EU and Russia.
Though Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly denied any plans to attack Ukraine, his regime carries a trust deficit in the eyes of the Western world. When Ukrainians deposed their pro-Russian president in early 2014, Russia had annexed Ukraine’s southern Crimean peninsula and backed separatists who captured large swathes of eastern Ukraine. The rebels have fought the Ukrainian military ever since in a conflict that has claimed thousands of lives. At present, the relationship between Russia and the West, particularly the United States, is as bad as it was during the Cold War. However, unlike the Cold War geopolitics, Russia is now far more intertwined in the global economy, a reality that will hopefully help the global community avoid a confrontation between East and West. Moreover, for the United States, it is China — not Russia — that poses a greater threat as a more serious strategic adversary in the long term. On its part, India hopes for a diplomatic solution. If the crisis intensifies further and leads to war, the situation would create a new set of diplomatic challenges for India and could hurt its moves to deepen security and economic ties with European partners. The standoff is already strengthening the relationship between Russia and China and it could be problematic for India on the strategic front.
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