Editorial: Iran’s simmering discontent

The intensifying protests in Iran over the hijab issue after Mahsa Amini died in the hands of Iran’s ‘morality police’, are just a manifestation of the simmering discontent in the civil society. Amini’s death leading to the current Iranian turmoil can be seen as a perfect example of the butterfly effect – the possibility of […]

The intensifying protests in Iran over the hijab issue after Mahsa Amini died in the hands of Iran’s ‘morality police’, are just a manifestation of the simmering discontent in the civil society. Amini’s death leading to the current Iranian turmoil can be seen as a perfect example of the butterfly effect – the possibility of the flapping of butterfly wings causing a typhoon. Behind such a typhoon, there could be a legion of other reasons. Sadly, Iran exemplifies this theory. The skyrocketing unemployment rate, spiralling inflation, collapsing currency, rapidly shifting geopolitical realignments post the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the harsh sanctions imposed by the US and the EU, all have undoubtedly contributed to the current crisis. The spread of protests to other regions like the impoverished Sistan-Baluchistan on the border of Afghanistan and Pakistan does not augur well and could lead to a point of no return for Iran. Though the Iranian protests appear to be innocuous with young women discarding their headscarves or cutting their hair in public or knocking turbans of clerics’ heads and darting away, the simmering discontent is likely to intensify further as Iran tries to tackle the issue with an iron fist. So far, over 300 have died and more than 20,000 arrested as Iran cracked down on protests.

Iran’s leadership is to blame for the current crisis. The unemployment rate touched 24% this quarter (for youth between 15 and 24 years). No wonder, university campuses have become fountainheads of unrest. The inflation is at a staggering 40%, while the Iranian Rial has plummeted. The value of the currency touched an incredible rate where one dollar is traded for 3,62,000 Rials in the open market, while the country maintains an official ‘artificial rate’ of 42,000 Rials for one dollar. The journey of plummeting Rial has become more pronounced after protests erupted. The US pulling out of the nuclear deal in 2018 and sanctions imposed on Iran too contributed to the slide. As if these were not enough, the geopolitical imbalances after the Ukraine-Russia conflict broke out pushed Iran more towards Russia and China. More dangerous is Iran’s recent statement that it had supplied drones to Russia for use in the ongoing conflict. A dangerous outcome of Iran’s support is that it is distancing other countries further. Israel is reported to have softened its attitude towards Ukraine, as it believes that Iran getting closer to Russia could evolve into a threat to Israel’s security. With such tectonic shifts happening, it’s time for the Iranian leadership to step down a little bit and ensure peace in the country. Else, the country which saw the White Revolution in 1979 will witness another one for sure. Let the unrest be not mistaken for a mere flapping of butterfly wings. It could indeed create a typhoon!

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