IMD warns of below-normal monsoon for Telangana; slow start and heatwave risk in June

The IMD has forecast a below-normal Southwest Monsoon for 2026, with Telangana likely to receive deficient rainfall and a sluggish onset in June. The report also warns of continued heatwave conditions in isolated pockets despite the official monsoon season beginning.

Hyderabad: The upcoming monsoon season could prove challenging for Telangana, with indications that the state may likely witness an average or below-normal rainy season.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD), New Delhi, which released its second-stage long-range forecast for the 2026 Southwest Monsoon on Friday, indicates a below-normal monsoon for the South Peninsular region, which includes Telangana.

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What is more concerning is the IMD’s forecast for June, which predicts that certain isolated pockets of Telangana will continue to experience more heatwave days than normal, even after the monsoon season officially commences.

Unlike previous years, when the Southwest Monsoon typically became active across the state in the initial part of June, this year’s onset is expected to be significantly sluggish.

The IMD national forecast projects seasonal rainfall at 90 percent of the Long Period Average (LPA), placing the country, and specifically Southern states including Telangana, in the ‘below normal’ category, with a 45 percent probability of receiving less than 94 percent of the LPA.

The IMD, New Delhi monsoon forecast also indicates a slow start to the season, with June rainfall expected to remain below the 92 percent threshold.

A month ago, several senior meteorologists had hoped that the phenomenon of the Indian Ocean Dipole would strengthen monsoon winds and help bring more rainfall to the Indian subcontinent.

However, complicating the monsoon forecast, the IMD on Friday confirmed that the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains in a neutral state, with no current signs of shifting to a positive phase to offset the influence of the developing El Niño.

The IMD, New Delhi will release its specific July rainfall forecast in the last week of June. As the season progresses, state-level monitoring by agencies like the TSDPS will be essential to track how these erratic patterns affect individual districts.