India ramps up oil imports from Russia and US amid Iran-Israel conflict

Amid rising tensions between Iran and Israel, India has ramped up Russian and US crude oil imports in June, reducing reliance on Middle Eastern supplies. Data shows India’s evolving strategy to ensure energy security amid Strait of Hormuz risks

New Delhi: India has sharply increased its crude oil imports from Russia and the United States in June, surpassing the combined intake from traditional Middle Eastern suppliers like Iraq and Saudi Arabia, amid rising geopolitical tensions following Israel’s strikes on Iran.

According to preliminary data from global trade analytics firm Kpler, Indian refiners are likely to import between 2.1–2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian crude in June — the highest volume in two years and accounting for over 35 per cent of India’s total crude intake.

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The surge comes as tensions in the Gulf intensify. On June 13, Israel launched strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, followed by U.S. military action targeting Iranian facilities. Fears of supply disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil transit route, have escalated, although actual supplies remain unaffected for now.

Imports from the Middle East — including Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait — stood at approximately 1.9 million bpd between June 1 and 19, with full-month projections of around 2.0 million bpd. That’s down 100,000–150,000 bpd from May.

Imports from the U.S. also jumped significantly, reaching 439,000 bpd in June, compared to 280,000 bpd in May. This reflects a growing diversification strategy by Indian refiners to mitigate risks in the Gulf.

“India’s June 2025 crude oil imports tell a story of strategic positioning, not panic,” said Sumit Ritolia, Lead Analyst at Kpler. “Russian oil acts as a logistical and financial shield, while U.S. and Atlantic Basin volumes offer supply flexibility.”

India, the world’s third-largest oil consumer, began shifting away from Middle Eastern suppliers following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. With Western sanctions making Russian oil available at discounted rates, its share in India’s oil mix surged from under 1 per cent to more than 40 per cent within two years.

While a closure of the Strait of Hormuz remains unlikely, Kpler notes growing unease. Iran’s threats, prompted by Israel’s preemptive strikes, raised concerns of oil prices spiking to $400 per barrel, though analysts see this scenario as improbable due to Iran’s own reliance on the strait for 96 per cent of its exports and potential Chinese backlash.

Still, Indian refiners remain cautious. Ship traffic data indicates a drop in crude loadings from the Gulf and declining tanker activity due to security concerns. As a result, India may reduce its July nominations for Middle Eastern cargoes, increasing spot purchases from Russia, the U.S., and West Africa instead.

“Refiners are watching the geopolitical landscape closely,” Ritolia added. “If risks in the Middle East escalate, we may see a pivot away from the Gulf, with Indian firms drawing on strategic reserves or seeking government subsidies to manage inflation.”