Is coffee production across globe threatened by heat?

India is the world's sixth largest coffee producer. However, high temperature, heavy rainfall and landslides in the country’s coffee heartlands had made an adverse impact on its production

Hyderabad: In the last four decades years, warm climatic conditions have led to reduced coffee yield. According to a research, the rising temperatures will lead to ‘ongoing systemic shocks’ to coffee production globally, reducing its production. There is a need for a permanent solution to prevent further warming of the Earth and develop heat-resistant varieties of coffee.

Researchers analysed the impacts of climate factors such as temperature, rainfall and humidity in the around 12 coffee-producing countries between 1980 and 2020 to check the impact of climate change. The study found that the frequency of climate hazards – sub-optimal growing conditions due to extremes such as high temperatures – had increased in every region during that period. Five of the six most hazardous years were between 2010 and 2020.

---

The optimal growing temperatures for the two major coffee varieties, arabica and robusta, are 18 degree Celsius  to 22 degree Celsius and 22 degree Celsius  to 28 degree Celsius respectively.

The researchers found that between 1980 and 2020, growing regions were more prone to experiencing cold temperatures. The current climate, however, is characterised by hot conditions in every region, they found, adding that the vast majority of coffee regions never experience cold growing season temperatures.

The researchers wrote “With climate change projections showing a continued rise in temperatures in the tropics is likely, we suggest that coffee production can expect ongoing systemic shocks.” “This systemic risk to the global coffee trade is posed by synchronised crop failures.”

Previous research has shown the amount of land suitable for coffee cultivation may be reduced to half by 2050 due to climate change. And if the crops failed due to heat shocks and there isn’t enough coffee stored, there could be an increase in the prices.

The researchers also analysed the impacts of climate drivers on coffee production, including the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (Enso), the planet’s most significant year-to-year climate fluctuation.

Though El Nino has global effects, it seems to have less of an impact in southern Brazil, the world’s largest grower for arabica beans. The researchers found major arabica regions in the far southeast of Brazil and southwest Ethiopia are amongst the least susceptible regions to climate hazards.

The 12 top coffee growers account for about 90 per cent of global production. India is the world’s sixth largest coffee producer, behind Brazil, Vietnam, Indonesia, Colombia, and Honduras. The country exports around 70 percent of production – with exports roughly split between 30 percent Arabica and 70 percent Robusta.

Coffee Board of India expressed last year that coffee production for 2024-25 may be significantly lower as there has been a considerable loss of plants and berries on account of high temperature, heavy rainfall and landslides in the country’s coffee heartlands.