NASA warns of potential asteroid impact in 2032, scientists may consider deflection mission

For the first time, scientists worldwide may need to seriously explore a deflection strategy to counter the threat of asteroid YR4, which, according to NASA, now carries a 2.3 percent chance of colliding with Earth on December 22, 2032.

Hyderabad: Remember the Bruce Willis starrer Armageddon, in which a ragtag team of oil drillers land on an asteroid, which is hurtling straight to Earth, and blow-it up to save us?

For the first time ever, scientists across the world might have to seriously consider a deflection strategy to address the threat of asteroid YR 4, which according to NASA, now has a 2.3 percent chance of striking Earth on December 22, 2032.

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A few days ago, NASA officials reported a 2.3 percent chance of the asteroid striking Earth in 2032, up from the earlier prediction of 1.9 percent. According to estimates, 2.3 percent chance means 1 in 43 chance of impact, with a 97.7 percent likelihood that the asteroid will miss.

While the chance of the asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting our planet is slim, this is for the first time that scientists across the world might have to seriously consider a deflection mission soon.

Based on information available, YR4 asteroid was discovered on December 27, 2024 by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) telescope in Rio Hurtado, Chile.

Analysis by astronomers has indicated that the size of the asteroid is 40 to 100 meters, which is almost like a football field. The highest probability rate of hitting or impacting the Earth, the asteroid can reach, in the coming few years is 8, which means 100 percent chance of impact.

Scientists and researchers have compared the YR4 asteroid to a 10 megaton bomb, which is about 1000 times more powerful than the nuclear bombs that were dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, which could easily wipe-out a city.

While the chance of an impact is very low, reports have indicated that if the asteroid continues on its present trajectory, then somewhere around April, 2025, scientists from across the world have to come together to prepare a plan to deflect YR4.