Opinion: Beyond the Saudi-Pakistan pact
The agreement is more symbolic than operational—offering Riyadh with reassurance and throwing Islamabad a lifeline
By Brig Advitya Madan (retd)
On September 17, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia signed a mutual defence agreement, committing that any aggression against one would be treated as aggression against both. The announcement has triggered questions in India, including: Could this pact translate into Saudi Arabia backing Pakistan in the event of a confrontation with New Delhi?
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Shifting Sands
To answer this, it is important not to view the agreement in isolation but against the shifting sands of West Asian geopolitics. Earlier this month, Israel struck a site in Qatar, killing senior Hamas figures engaged in discussions on a US-brokered ceasefire proposal. For the Gulf monarchies, this incident was an uncomfortable reminder that while they host American bases and have long relied on the US security umbrella, the US cannot always restrain Israel, its closest regional ally.
Indeed, Israel’s geography makes it indispensable to Washington for balancing Iran and projecting power in the region. When Qatar was struck, Washington’s response was telling: it merely urged Israel to be “very, very careful,” — language that underscored limits of American leverage. This has raised doubts across Gulf capitals: What happens if Israel decides to target them in the future?
The bigger shift lies in the Gulf’s diminishing reliance on the US, where India’s balanced diplomacy creates both stability and opportunity
Against this backdrop, Riyadh’s pact with Islamabad can be seen as an attempt to diversify its security options. Specifically, Saudi Arabia may be signalling interest in Pakistan’s nuclear umbrella as an additional deterrent — insurance in case US guarantees fall short.
For Pakistan, meanwhile, the agreement comes at a moment of economic fragility. With an external debt of USD120 billion, double-digit inflation, and forex reserves of barely USD 14.5 billion, Pakistan’s financial system remains under pressure. A closer embrace with Riyadh offers not only potential funding but also renewed relevance on the regional stage.
India’s Ties with Riyadh
It would, however, be a mistake to assume that this automatically places Saudi Arabia and Pakistan on the same page against India. Over the past decade, New Delhi has invested consistently in building a strategic partnership with Riyadh.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visits to Saudi Arabia in 2016, 2019, and most recently in 2025 have underscored this priority. The 2019 establishment of the Strategic Partnership Council moved bilateral ties beyond the traditional oil trade. Cooperation today spans investment, infrastructure, counterterrorism, and technology.
Equally important are the people-to-people ties. Over 2.6 million Indians live and work in Saudi Arabia, forming one of the largest expatriate communities there. This diaspora is not only an economic bridge but also a strong social connector that reinforces goodwill between the two countries.
History as a Guide
There are also precedents to suggest that Pakistan’s alignment with Riyadh is not unconditional. In 2015, when Saudi Arabia sought Pakistan’s participation in its campaign against the Houthis in Yemen, Islamabad declined to send troops, aircraft, or naval assets—despite decades of Saudi financial support for its nuclear programme.
Similarly, if Israel were to target Saudi Arabia in the future, Pakistan would face a difficult calculation. Any retaliation against Israel could invite a devastating military and cyber response that might dismantle Pakistan’s already vulnerable infrastructure, including its terror networks. Caution, not adventurism, is likely to guide Islamabad’s actions.
The Larger Strategic Picture
The Saudi-Pakistan pact also points to a broader reality: the United States’ diminishing role as a reliable Gulf security guarantor. For decades, Washington’s presence was seen as ironclad. Today, with its focus increasingly divided between Europe and the Indo-Pacific, and with domestic fatigue over “endless wars,” America’s ability to reassure its Gulf partners is in question.
Pakistan, meanwhile, has been recalibrating its foreign alignments. It has drawn closer to China, cultivated Turkey, and now seeks renewed ties with Saudi Arabia. Yet these relationships often reflect short-term needs more than long-term strategic clarity.
India, by contrast, has projected stability and pragmatism. During the Gaza conflict, New Delhi avoided inflammatory rhetoric but backed the UN resolution supporting a two-state solution. It has nurtured robust ties with Israel, safeguarded interests in Iran through projects like Chabahar and the India-Middle East Corridor, and expressed support for Qatar’s sovereignty. At the same time, it continues to engage both Russia and Ukraine while leveraging discounted Russian oil to secure its energy needs.
Confidence in India’s Approach
For India, then, the Saudi-Pakistan pact should not be read as an immediate threat. Rather, it reflects the complex web of hedging strategies that Gulf states are adopting amid an uncertain regional landscape.
New Delhi’s challenge — and opportunity —is to continue walking the tightrope of diplomacy with steady balance. By deepening ties with Riyadh while maintaining partnerships with Israel, Iran, and other regional players, India has shown that it can safeguard its interests without becoming entangled in zero-sum equations.
The Saudi-Pakistan agreement is, in many ways, more symbolic than operational. It provides Riyadh with reassurance and gives Islamabad a lifeline. But it does not automatically translate into hostility towards India.
The real shift to watch is the erosion of America’s singular role as the Gulf’s security guarantor. For India, the task is clear: remain confident in its balanced strategy, strengthen partnerships across divides, and reinforce its reputation as a credible, steady, and pragmatic actor in a turbulent region.
(The author is a retired Army officer)
