Report predicts RSV vaccine market to exceed $9 billion by 2029

Ahead of the impending RSV season in September, Moderna’s mRNA-1345 and AstraZeneca’s Beyfortus are also likely to stake a claim in the market.

New York: The respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine market is likely to surpass $9 billion by 2029, a growth of over $8 billion from 2023, according to a report on Monday.

The report by GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company, is in the light of the US Food and Drug Administration’s (FDA) approval of two RSV vaccines — Arexvy by GSK and Abrysvo by Pfizer in May.

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Ahead of the impending RSV season in September, Moderna’s mRNA-1345 and AstraZeneca’s Beyfortus are also likely to stake a claim in the market.

Together, “the four therapies will make up 90 per cent of total forecast sales in 2029 and are the main drivers of the significant increase in the global RSV market”, Jasper Morley, Drugs Intelligence Analyst at GlobalData, in a statement.

RSV is a common infectious disease of the lungs and respiratory tract that can cause further health problems such as bronchiolitis and pneumonia. Although infections in healthy children and adults are less severe, certain patient groups, such as children with lung disease, the elderly, or the immunocompromised, may experience life-threatening symptoms, with RSV causing up to 10,000 deaths in the US per year.

The report showed that following the US and EU approval in May and June, respectively, Arexvy is projected to climb steadily and emerge as a market leader.

The vaccine is forecast to retain the top spot over a seven-year forecast, ultimately generating more than a quarter of total global RSV market sales, with just over $2.5 billion in 2029.

Despite receiving US approval in May, Abrysvo is still awaiting EU approval. It is forecast to achieve sales of $1.7 billion, securing third place behind Moderna’s mRNA-1345.

mRNA-1345 is an mRNA-based vaccine that is currently awaiting approval in Australia and the EU for children and adults.

The drug is expected to launch in 2024 and experience exponential growth, surpassing Abrysvo, to reach sales of $2.4 billion in 2029.

After receiving EU approval late last year and US approval on July 17, Astrazeneca’s Beyfortus is set to reach global sales of $1.27 billion. The recombinant monoclonal antibody is the world’s first treatment indicated for disease prevention in infants during their first RSV season.

“With the leading four RSV treatments all indicated prophylactically and eager to establish themselves before the start of the fall season, the RSV market is poised to become a major pharmaceutical battleground over the next seven years,” Morley said.

“Fierce rivalry is to be expected, and the prospect of additional drug approvals, including geographical and maternal vaccinations, will grant treatments a competitive edge and a favourable position in the market,” he added.