Southwest monsoon to set over Telangana in last week of June
Hyderabad: The Indian Summer Monsoon (the Southwest Monsoon) is likely to set over the central part of India, the Eastern Ghats region (20°N,80°E), on the last week of June, between 21 and 29 June 2021. Pre-monsoon isolated rainfall may appear in period 14 -17 June. The continuous monsoon rainfall is expected to start from June 29, according to prediction for monsoon from Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany.
The region of our forecast is in the central part of India in the area of the Eastern Ghats (EG), namely in the southeastern part of Maharashtra state, and the western part of Chhattisgarh state, and the northern part of Telangana state (the geographical point (20°N, 80°E) surrounded by the square of 2.5°x2.5° with the area of approximately 77000 km²).
The Indian Summer Monsoon (the Southwest Monsoon) is likely to set over Northern Telangana (17.5°N,80°E) between June 24 and July 2, 2021. Premature isolated rainfall may appear in the period 12 -19 June. The continuous monsoon rainfall is expected after July 2.
The forecast area is in the Telangana state (17.5°N, 80°E), namely towards the East of Hyderabad, south-east of Warangal, west of the Godavari river and north of Khammam.
Delhi has to wait for longer for the arrival of the monsoon
The Southwest Monsoon is likely to reach the Delhi region (27.5°N,77.5°E) during 11-19 July 2021. Pre-monsoon isolated rainfall are possible two weeks before monsoon arrival between June 28 and July 5 with a succeeding dry spell. After July 19, continuous monsoon rainfall is expected over the region.
Why is monsoon onset delayed this year?
During April 2021, the anticyclones over western Siberia were dominant, resulting in higher than average temperatures for the period 1991-2020. Outbreaks of polar air westward from this high-pressure area caused the negative temperature anomaly in the large area from Iceland to the Mediterranean and Black Seas. Air temperatures were below average over eastern Siberia, China, and most tropical and sub-tropical Eastern Pacific Ocean. Specifically, in northern Pakistan, northern and central India were about 3- 4°C lower than average. I expect that this temperature tendency will remain during the beginning of the monsoon. If so, it disorganizes the onset of monsoon, alternating premature rainfall and dry spells leading to the transition to monsoon longer and delayed monsoon onset.
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