‘Telangana may see 2 lakh Covid cases a day’
Hyderabad: The Omicron-driven Covid wave in Telangana will peak by the third week of January with daily positive infections expected to surge and hover anywhere between 1.5 lakh and 2 lakh. From the peak in the latter half of January, the daily Covid infections will start dropping and reach the lowest mark by the third week of February, according to the Omicron Projections (January-March 2022) IISc-ISI Model created by Siva Athreya and Rajesh Sundaresan and the team from Centre for Networked Intelligence, IISc-ISI, Bangalore Centre.
In their model, the IISc-ISI researchers considered three different parameters that include 30 per cent, 60 per cent and 100 per cent susceptibility of the population. “Past infection, vaccination, affected by immunity waning makes a certain fraction of the population susceptible to the new variant which is taken as a parameter of 30 per cent, 60 per cent and 100 per cent,” the researchers said.
Accordingly, if the population is 100 per cent susceptible, which is the worst-case scenario, then the peak daily Covid infections will hover between 2 lakh and 2.3 lakh infections in Telangana. In case the population is only 60 per cent susceptible, the daily peak Covid infections due to the Omicron variant will be just below 1.5 lakh daily infections. The daily Covid infections will be between 5,000 and 10,000 in Telangana, if there is only a 30 per cent susceptible population in Telangana, the IISc-ISI model has projected.
While there are three different projections over peak daily Covid positive infections, the IISc- ISI model has indicated that in all the three scenarios, the peak of the Covid wave will hit in the third week of January and then the daily infections will start dropping gradually.
For the entire country, the IISc-ISI model says the third wave, which has already started, will continue till the first week of March. Across India, the Omicron-driven Covid positive infections are expected to peak at around February 1 and from then, the cases would start reducing till March. Senior health officials here have pointed out that the IISc -ISI model do reflect their own assessment of the ongoing third wave, which is expected to hit its peak in January end and start dropping in February.
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