Trump likely to back off from high tariffs, stay invested in India: Jefferies

Jefferies has advised clients to buy Indian stocks, predicting Donald Trump will reverse his tariff stance. Analyst Christopher Wood highlighted India as Asia’s best long-term structural story, despite high valuations, while warning Trump’s policies could push BRICS nations toward de-dollarisation

Mumbai: US broking firm Jefferies has recommended its clients to purchase Indian stocks rather than sell them, as US President Donald Trump’s tariff policies are bound to take a U-turn, a report said on Monday.

In the report by Jefferies, Christopher Wood, a leading analyst at the US broking firm, suggested that its clients consider investing in India owing to the current global market environment and the possibility that Trump will eventually change his stance, which is not in America’s interest.

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“It is only a matter of time before Trump backs off the stance, which is not in America’s interest… On this point, it is worth noting that the track record makes it clear that it pays to stand up to the Donald,” Wood said.

Wood stated that Trump’s actions against major economies could drive the BRICS nations — Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa — toward de-dollarisation.

De-dollarisation is a situation where countries use a non-dollar currency for transactions instead of the US dollar.

The analyst said that Jefferies has consistently maintained a bullish stance on India, especially in its Asia ex-Japan long-only portfolio. The report noted that the country has experienced its largest period of underperformance in the past 12 months compared to global emerging markets in the last 15 years.

The broking firm also kept a “marginal Overweight” stance on India in its Asia ex-Japan relative-return book. “India represents the best long-term structural story in Asia,” though the market is “facing high valuations and massive equity supply”, said Wood. Indian equities are trading at 20.2 times one-year forward earnings, down from 22.4 times at the peak in October 2021.

The Jefferies strategist noted that BRICS countries are reuniting primarily due to the lack of a conceptual framework in the US administration’s foreign policy.

Meanwhile, several media reports claimed that the visit scheduled by US trade representatives to New Delhi between August 25 and August 29 will likely be rescheduled.

Trade relations between the two countries have soured after the US imposed a 25 per cent tariff on Indian exports, with threats of an additional 25 per cent duty scheduled to be in effect from August 27.