Which disease has the potential to turn into epidemic in 2025?

Malaria, HIV and tuberculosis kill around 2 million people each year

Hyderabad: Since the emergence and killing of millions of people around the world by COVID-19, most people have been nervous about the emergence of the next big infectious disease – be that a virus, bacterium, fungus, or parasite.

With COVID-19 in retreat, the three infectious diseases causing public health officials the greatest concern are malaria (parasite), HIV (virus) and tuberculosis (bacterium). Between them, they kill around 2 million people each year. And then there are the watchlists of priority pathogens – especially those that have become resistant to the drugs usually used to treat them, such as antibiotics and antivirals.

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Scientists must also constantly scan the horizon for the next potential problem. While this could come in any form of pathogen, certain groups are more likely than others to cause swift outbreaks, including influenza viruses. One influenza virus causing great concern right now is influenza A subtype H5N1, sometimes referred to as “bird flu”.

This virus is widely spread in both wild and domestic birds. Recently, it has also been infecting dairy cattle in the US States and is found in horses in Mongolia.

When influenza cases start increasing in animals such as birds, there is always a worry that it could jump to humans. Indeed, bird flu has infected humans in the US this year, mostly resulting from farm workers and people drinking raw milk. Luckily, H5N1 bird flu doesn’t seem to transmit from person to person, which greatly reduces its likelihood of causing a pandemic in humans.

Influenza viruses have to attach to molecular structures called sialic receptors on the outside of cells to get inside and start replicating.

A recent study showed that a single mutation in the flu genome could make H5N1 adept at spreading from human to human, which could jump-start a pandemic. Even without the potential ability to spread between humans, bird flu is likely to affect animal health even more in 2025. This not only has large animal welfare implications but also the potential to disrupt food supply and have economic effects as well.

The governments also must not forget about the continuing “slow pandemics” in humans, such as malaria, HIV, tuberculosis and other pathogens. Tackling them is paramount alongside scanning the horizon for any new diseases that might yet come.