Covid might end in 2nd half of 2021: Mckinsey report

The epidemiological end of Covid-19 by achieving herd immunity among the population through an efficient vaccine is expected to take place by the third or the fourth quarter of 2021.

Hyderabad: The end of the Covid-19 epidemic in the United States and other economies in the world is most likely to happen in the latter half of 2021, a report by Mckinsey and Company has said.

The epidemiological end of Covid-19 by achieving herd immunity among the population through an efficient vaccine is expected to take place by the third or the fourth quarter of 2021. However, attaining herd immunity through vaccine might not happen until 2022 or even later if the early vaccine candidates have efficacy or safety issues or if their distribution and adoption are delayed, the report ‘When will the Covid pandemic end?’ has said.

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A transition to a form of normalcy — when social and economic life can resume without the fear of fatality due to Covid-19 — could be achieved by the first or the second quarter of 2021 in the US and other advanced economies. The transition to normalcy, in whatever form that takes, will come gradually when people have confidence that they can do what they used to do without endangering themselves or others.

“Such transitions will be gradual. They have already begun in some locations and could be advanced in most countries by the first or the second quarter of 2021. Given the interconnectedness of the global economy, country timelines to normalcy are not fully independent of one another,” the September-2020 report of Mckinsey said.

The paths to herd immunity in other high-income countries are likely to be broadly similar to the one in the US. The timelines will vary based on differences in vaccine access and rollout and in levels of natural immunity.

To achieve herd immunity by the second and the fourth quarter of 2021, countries must ensure that a Covid vaccine is authorised by the end of 2020 or even early 2021. The vaccine distribution to a sufficient population should start in the first six months of next year and there should be a broad-based willingness among the population to be vaccinated.

The epidemiological end to Covid-19 through herd immunity will be delayed till 2022 or even later if vaccines are low in efficacy. The delay might also take place when the duration of the immunity is less and the timeline of manufacturing, distribution and administration of the vaccine is longer than expected.

Achieving an epidemiological end to Covid-19 and transitioning to normalcy are very important. The transition to the next normal will mark an important social and economic milestone, and herd immunity will be a more definitive end to the pandemic. In the US and other advanced economies, the epidemiological endpoint looks most likely to be reached in the second half of 2021, Mckinsey report added.

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