Hyderabad: Just as researchers from IIT Kanpur had predicted using SUTRA, a Covid mathematical model they developed, there is a steady decline in the daily number of Covid infections in Telangana. This trend, according to the latest projections from SUTRA, is expected to continue for a week before the second wave of the pandemic comes under complete control by June 10.
The daily Covid positive infections, which at the moment is hovering around the 2,000-mark, is likely to reach 650 by June 10. The projected decline in Covid infections will mark the end of the second wave that peaked at the end of April and steadily started to decline throughout May, the projections from the SUTRA mathematical model, which has achieved remarkable accuracy in projecting the Covid wave in the country, has indicated.
The average daily Covid positive infections throughout the country, which at present is hovering at around 1.5 lakh to 1.6 lakh is expected to decline steadily to 90,000 to 91,000, the projections from the mathematical model said. So far, the Covid forecasting model of researchers from IIT Kanpur has remained close to the actual daily Covid data. In fact, the SUTRA model of IIT Kanpur was also quite accurate and matched the forecast of the Singapore University survey/research that was taken up in 131 countries. The Singapore University had predicted a drop of over 95 per cent of daily Covid infections by end of June across the country.
Apart from the SUTRA mathematical model, the Covid model developed by the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), the independent global health research institute of the University of Washington, too has predicted a significant drop in daily Covid deaths in Telangana by June 10.
The IHME data, which is available updated live (covid19.healthdata.org) also forecasts that universal masking i.e., the use of masks by the general public is about 85 per cent in Telangana and the daily deaths that peaked on May 1 have gradually declined throughout May. Live Covid data available on www.covid19india.org, sutra-india.in and covid19.heathdata.org.
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