Covid second wave could last for three more months: Experts

India likely to witness peak in first or second week of May, say experts

Hyderabad: The tidal wave of Covid-19 infections being reported across the country, including in Telangana, during the second wave of the pandemic may take at least three months, up to the end of June, to come down to a level where all sections of the population feel safe to resume normal life, believe researchers, data scientists and senior public health officials.

People must be prepared for a long fight against the pandemic, at least till the end of June, public health officials and senior doctors from Hyderabad monitoring the present trend of infections said.

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“The next three months are crucial for us. I urge the public not to venture out unless it is inevitable. Wearing masks, maintaining hand hygiene and avoiding mass gatherings at any cost are vital for containment,” advises Director of Public Health Dr G Srinivasa Rao.

A clutch of projections by epidemiologists, data scientists and research organisations in India and abroad has broadly indicated that the country could witness the peak of the second wave somewhere in the first or the second week of May. However, from May, it will take a few months for the cases and fatalities to gradually reach a plateau and then decline.

“Even if the peak is reached in May, it will take a while for the cases and deaths to come down to a level where we can have confidence in resuming normal life. We can only do that if there is a high-alert public health system in action which involves genomic sequencing. With strict regional lockdowns, mask mandates, ban on large gatherings, curbs on inter-State mobility and increased vaccination, we can try to bring these projections down. A monumental task lies ahead of us. Colossal mistakes have been made by ignoring signs of this surge,” Dr Bhramar Mukherjee, Professor of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of Michigan, said in a series of posts on Twitter.

The Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), the University of Washington, which manages the highly quoted and respected ‘covid19.healthdata.org’, has projected that the daily deaths, one of the key indicators of the progression of the pandemic, in Telangana will peak by the end of May or the first week of June.

In worst-case scenario projections, the IHME said the daily deaths may peak by June and continue to gradually taper by the end of July or the first week of August. For all over India, the IHME projections say that the daily deaths will peak by the middle of May and start to gradually reduce and reach a low in July or latest by the first week of August.

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