Current Covid surge just a ripple, say IIT researchers

The IIT researchers from Hyderabad and Kanpur indicated that the peak of the ongoing surge of Covid infections will be over in the coming days

Hyderabad: The current surge of Covid infections due to the XBB 1.16 variant in multiple Indian cities is just a ripple, as the natural immunity gained by Indians in the last three waves has continued to remain strong, IIT researchers from Hyderabad and Kanpur said on Sunday.

Indicating that the peak of the ongoing surge of Covid infections will be over in the coming days, the researchers, including IIT-Kanpur Prof Manindra Agrawal and SERB National Science Chair at IIT-Hyderabad Dr M Vidyasagar, said Covid is not a concern now in India. The researchers had earlier developed the SUTRA mathematical model for forecasting pandemics.

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Commenting on the ongoing rise of infections due to the XBB 1.16 variant, they concluded that the natural immunity in India continues to remain strong. “According to our model, only 9-12 per cent of people have lost their natural immunity. That is why, despite a highly infectious variant and no restrictions, we have only a ripple,” Agrawal said.

The top IIT researchers, whose earlier mathematical models had accurately forecasted the path of the three waves, pointed out that some individuals were also losing their natural immunity, which is why Covid infections were rising. Similar smaller ripples are likely to occur in the near future as well. However, there is nothing to be worried about, they said.

Based on the SUTRA model, the IIT researchers expected that the current rise in infections would peak at 16, 000 positive cases per day across the country in the coming days. However, there are indications that the daily caseload would not reach the said figure and the peak would be much lower than projected. As a result, the drop in infections would start in the coming days.

Apart from the SUTRA researchers, expert epidemiologists and public health researchers involved in tracking the XBB 1.16 variant also believe that the current all-India data suggests the Indian Covid surge is over and there are clear signs that it is now slowing down.